Confounded

Post Your Favourite Charts Here

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The figures for total lending to individuals (incl. mortgages CC's, OD's, personal loans, HP, etc) are truly blood-curdling. Lending has totally collapsed, the fibrillating fluctuations over the last few months are within a range significantly lower than total lending in 1997.

Total_lending.png.png

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bailout-pie.png

thats an incredibly informative pie chart.

So in effect we could wage war in Vietnam another 6 times or so!!! Such fun!! Or another 3 times with twice the ooomph!!!!

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This Recession vs Great Depression

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:ph34r:mf_popcorn1.gif :ph34r:

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Edited by MOP

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Some old ones from 2007 when we first started watching things unfolding:

ABX Index - Bought to our attention by cgnao

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Bear Stearns

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LCDX Spread - Bought to our attention by ?..!

eotwawkilcdxgraph.gif

Edited by libspero

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3646368558_d09a7d7d79_m.jpg

3646381652_a4788f701f.jpg

G7 Nations Short Term Debt (above)

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G7 Nations Debt (above)

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Cost of mortgage per £1k given interest rate and term (above)

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And although not strictly a chart, it is one of my favourites (above)

Edited: pictures didn't appear + gave explanation of some charts

Edited by Scott

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My charts paint a very bullish picture.

And which country were they for?

Ah, looks like Australia!

Mmm, I could have sworn this was .co.uk.

Edited: Answered my own question as couldn't be bothered to wait for the reply!

Edited by Scott

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fedq12009.jpg

Might as well add this one while it's topical, demonstrating credit contraction in the US

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I thought this one was particularly sickening, especially having read the Goldman Sachs 'record profits' story this morning.

mm3.png

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This little chart shows how volatile building land is. In the nineties crash, which showed as pretty subdued in the indices, straining your eyes at this little chart, it looks like land prices went from an index of just under 40 at the peak, to about 10 at the bottom, so approximately a 75% drop!

It is likely to be even higher this time with such a steep crash. IMO that's what to buy at the bottom.

I *think* you may be reading the chart wrong. It says everything is rebased to 1983=100, and i think the vertical scale is points above that so maybe land prices fell from 140 to 110.

The chart isnt very clear though, maybe it had annotations to go with it?

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I *think* you may be reading the chart wrong. It says everything is rebased to 1983=100, and i think the vertical scale is points above that so maybe land prices fell from 140 to 110.

The chart isnt very clear though, maybe it had annotations to go with it?

You are correct. But it looks to me that land prices need to fall about 60% on that chart and the cost of building a house needs to fall by about a third, to get back to long term average growth. Now let's say that land is 40% of the cost of an overall price of a house for my example.

So, if a house sells for £100k and there is a plot of land for sale next to it that is the same size, the land would currently be on the market for £40k (with planning permission). And the cost to build the house would be £50k (allowing for a 10% profit for the housebuilder).

Now that land cost needs to fall 60%, so its £24k at the bottom of the crash. And the house build also needs to drop by one third, bringing that to £33k. The builder takes 10% profit, making it £62,700.

A drop of 37.8%.

These are worked on guesstimate amounts for the land percentage, housebuild percentage and housebuilder profit margin, so feel free to correct me on those.

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BTW, great topic Confounded. Mods - this really should be pinned.

PS No charts from the bulls yet!

Thanks guys for all your charts, Scott I think your signature chart is all you need regarding UK house prices, included in my originals and one of the most graphic charts regarding the distortion from income that this excessive credit bubble caused.

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Well you better just stick to the US and other non UK charts on here then.

I think it is relevant when talking about UK house prices to look at UK House related charts and worldwide economic charts as they have a bearing on everything.

To use an Australian house price chart as a bull exercise on UK house prices is pretty irrelevant, as is using any other countries house price chart in a bearish or bullish manner (even though they may be interesting and could potentially offer an insight into where we are going).

I'm happy for you if you are bullish on Aussie house prices. Personally I couldn't care less whether they fall or rise. Makes no difference to me as I don't want to live there.

Apologies if I was being flippant but your chart didn't have anything to do with UK house prices just as US ones don't either!

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