ZR_Seanie

How Long Will This Bull Trap Last

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As the title says really?
How long will the Bull Trap last????
How long until crash speed once again?

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[quote name='ZR_Seanie' post='1938921' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:29 PM']As the title says really?
How long will the Bull Trap last????
How long until crash speed once again?[/quote]

Wow, you're putting them on the spot there ZR.

This will be interesting.

:)

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3 months tops

Easy

My best guess is one more month of + figures (but only on hali OR natwide - not both) then DOWN DOWN DOWN BABY!!! Edited by sbn

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Fek knows, but my missus is putting her foot down and we are gonna be doing some vieiwings..... so hopefully it will get a shift on cos if I offer on somethin and it gets accepted, I will then re-neg day before exchange... failing that i will end up over paying.

That all said if I do end up buying I am gonna stop watching the news and not log on to HPC again, this will prevent me feeling a little psd Edited by D179

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Until the arcs of irrational exhuberence and economic reality intersect once again.

Or, as my gran would have said 'That and a bit more.' The bit more being for spin and sheeple sentiment to catch up with gravity.

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Hmmm I don't think eejits are in short supply in this country so it could last some time, however I reckon that the national collective bank of Mum and Dad must be on its last legs in terms of helping with deposits. I reckon we may have another couple of months of positive figures from buyers whose interest in current affairs equates to watching the Apprentice and Big Brother, but by September it'll be crash as usual - at least another 1.5% drops per month as unemployment hits home and the depth of the steaming pile of shite that is our public finances hits home.

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[quote name='Miss Madam' post='1938947' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:40 PM']Hmmm I don't think eejits are in short supply in this country so it could last some time, however I reckon that the national collective bank of Mum and Dad must be on its last legs in terms of helping with deposits. I reckon we may have another couple of months of positive figures from buyers whose interest in current affairs equates to watching the Apprentice and Big Brother, but by September it'll be crash as usual - at least another 1.5% drops per month as unemployment hits home and the depth of the steaming pile of shite that is our public finances hits home.[/quote]


Nominally House prices are nearing their lows.

In Real Terms House prices will continue to fall for the next 10 years

The INFLATION Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and on the rampage.

If you have CASH ie 40% deposit - buy now.

If not sit tight for 5 years or so your time will come.

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[quote name='sbn' post='1938935' date='Jun 8 2009, 04:35 PM']3 months tops

Easy

My best guess is one more month of + figures (but only on hali OR natwide - not both) then DOWN DOWN DOWN BABY!!![/quote]


I'm with you, I give it 3 to 4 months then it's back to a continuing .......what do estate agents call it?........."correction". LOL Edited by Tim Miller

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good god i hope its a few months and i fighting bulls is becoming hard work.
avarage house prices seem to be able to increase alot more than they can crash per month according to the halliwide

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[quote name='Daddy Bear' post='1938951' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:42 PM']The INFLATION Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and on the rampage.[/quote]
I dont know anyone who isn't at least a little bit worried about their job.
Of those who think that they will DEFINITELY have a job in 6 monghts time, None of them think that they will get a pay rise.

The ONLY way to reinflate houses is to print money and give it directly to public sector.

This would lead to disaster within weeks. - its pretty much what Mugabe did.

If this happens bulls - you are not in a better position than anyone else.

You are still made of meat like the rest of us

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[quote name='ZR_Seanie' post='1938921' date='Jun 8 2009, 12:29 PM']As the title says really?
How long will the Bull Trap last????
How long until crash speed once again?[/quote]

Ohhh - about 10 years.

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I was talking to an EA at the weekend, basically said the pickup in sales noted for Feb-April has gone dead again. What you have seen is a tiny bit of pent-up demand resulting in an apparent spring bounce. We had some unseasonal nice weather in February if you remember and this got people out and about.

The volume of sales in Feb and April was still only about 30% of the same time last year. Given also that prices have gone down I bet the poor old EA's are having to scrape by on less than one-quarter of their previous incomes.

Certainly come Autumn I bet we are in crash mode again.

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we have discovered a cure for all ills now, it's a wonder it was never tried before because it is obviously a very safe and sound thing to do or, as brown might say, 'the right thing to do' - that thing or things are printing money (what a good idea!!! yay!!!) and base rates, at 0% or near enough. the fools who ran economies for hundreds or thousands of years before never thought of it or fractional reserve banking, or sub-priming etc etc, we are much more sophisticated these days dont you know, so yes there is a sustainable bull market as we print money to give to people directly to spend on whatever they want or to employers to ponzi something or the other, the game goes on and on until the rather odd people running the show realise why these dangerous things have never been tried before successfully...and then oh dear

or on the other hand they are really a bunch of geniuses and real employment and real manufacturing and real prospects rather than Ponzi Town are making a come back, which will indeed be the greatest economic miracle ever known to man and would earn blanchflower, brown, king & darling statues in traf square

but somehow i just think they're still on plan a - spurt as much pretend stimulus out as poss in the hope of buying time until a new term is under their belt, but as we see this past few days, the unapathetic voters aint that gullible at all Edited by loginandtonic

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How long?

[url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qexDBgWM2X8"]Gutenberg & The Impact of the Printing Press[/url]

Ask the question "How long will it take people to figure out the con?"

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My guess for the last 6 months has been that there will be a rise (5-10%) throughout spring and summer then a medium fall (5-10%) until next spring.

2010 will too be much of a muchness (assuming QE is not pushed so hard it wakens the sleeping giant).

I am certain that 2011 will see very great falls.

Regards Edited by LumpHammer

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[quote name='dazednconfused' post='1938931' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:33 PM']This isn't the bull trap, its the next boom.

Buy now before you are left renting forever - paying my mortgage. Cracking!! :lol:[/quote]


I'll have a nine-bar of whatever you're smoking because it's obviously good stuff.

We [b]might[/b] have another small rise next month but that's it. We'll then have at least ten months of falls, far more severe than the ones we have seen so far. Recessions feed on themselves and this Summer's unemployed are next Spring's repossessed.

Since the Summer of 2007- remember that?- it has all played out exactly as I predicted. Not that there's anything particularly smart about me and as most know I am a mere hairy-arsed lorry driver.

I have simply been prepared to learn from those posters who obviously know what they are talking about, and whose predictions have been proven right by history.

I put my money where my mouth is. My money stays in the bank right now.

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[quote name='ZR_Seanie' post='1938921' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:29 PM']As the title says really?
How long will the Bull Trap last????
How long until crash speed once again?[/quote]

I think it's waning already, but as the figures clearly lag could be one more monthly umpff before the falls resume, I heard a few anecdotals this week of businesses feeling quite gloomy, optimism has peaked and green shots will go back to their roots soon. I have also seen 2 previously overpriced stc's about a month ago come back on the market this week, I recon the surveyor wasn't having any of it, that could help stall this bounce too. Edited by mew too

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Until interest rates are increased I think we could see sporadic increases for up to 12 months (but 6-8 is much more likely).

Then everything will come (inevitably) crashing down and all of the tro...bulls on this site will mysteriously disappear.

And that's all I have to say about that.

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Any bull that falls into the trap could find they are in it for quite awhile.

Don't fall into it, nothing will be going fast upwards anytime soon. ;)

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[quote name='Harry Monk' post='1939146' date='Jun 8 2009, 07:21 PM']I have simply been prepared to learn from those posters who obviously know what they are talking about, and whose predictions have been proven right by history.

I put my money where my mouth is. My money stays in the bank right now.[/quote]

Now that's what I needed. I'm getting fed up of hearing talk of green shoots when the fundamentals haven't changed - lack of available and affordable credit still not there, manufacturing output down, consumer spending flatlining (despite record levels of discounting), Unemployment rising (still) and set to rise further...I could throw in the cost of oil and more importantly the price at the pumps rising, the price of food rising. All this sucks money from the average family, and it is only when the average family, on the average wage can afford to buy the average house (in their area) that things will return to any sense of normality.

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CEBR said coming up to the Easter weekend :

[quote]Analysis of housing transactions data shows that July almost always marks the peak month for moving home. With a typical three to four month lead time from first enquiry to completion the CEBR says it can see that the Easter weekend is one of the most important dates in the estate agent’s calendar. Will this weekend mark the start of the turning point in the housing market, however, or another crushing disappointment for those estate agents lucky enough to still be in a job?[/quote]

I am not sure if this is true or not it would seem to make a lot of sense that people tend to look in the spring and move in the summer (school holidays etc)..

[u][b]Building society statistics April 2009[/b][/u]
[quote]Building society gross lending amounted to £1,551 million in April 2009 compared to £3,921 million in April 2008.

Net lending by building societies in April 2009 was [size=2]-[/size]£722 million compared to £704 million in April 2008.

Mortgage approvals in April 2009 were £1,599 million compared to £3,357 million in April 2008.

Building societies had a net withdrawal of £811 million in April 2009 compared to net receipts of £1,823 million in April 2008.

Including interest credited, savings balances held by building societies increased by £80 million in April 2009, compared to £2,918 million in April 2008.

Building societies had a net receipt of £201 million from Cash ISAs in April 2009, compared to net receipts of £2,052 million in April 2008.[/quote]

[b]Another article last week said:[/b]

[quote]The mainstream media will generate plenty of opinion today suggesting a 'bottom' of sorts has been reached by the housing market. With transaction numbers at lows not seen since the seventies and mortgage lending 60% down year on year this would be a premature assumption when mortgage lending and sales transactions suggest an undeniable fact; the housing market is in fact dead...[/quote]

Doesn't sound good does it?

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Flippin' eck! The Bulls & Neithers are all over this thread like flies on 5h1t!

Well sorry to disappoint but as sure as night follows day "the crash aint over yet" not by a long shot.

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[quote name='D179' post='1938937' date='Jun 8 2009, 05:35 PM']Fek knows, but my missus is putting her foot down and we are gonna be doing some vieiwings..... so hopefully it will get a shift on cos if I offer on somethin and it gets accepted, I will then re-neg day before exchange... failing that i will end up over paying.

That all said if I do end up buying I am gonna stop watching the news and not log on to HPC again, this will prevent me feeling a little psd[/quote]

You and me both. If you cone up with an effective strategy please put up a topic - god knows this is a hard one to win!

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