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Why don't you just tell us what boat it is we have missed. What vessel is it we now see drifting past our reach and beyond the horizon? Go on: put a name to it. I dare you.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp   
Guest Charlie The Tramp
THE other day I was in a shopping centre. Rubbing my eyes in disbelief, I found that not only was it quite crowded, but people were spending money. Some were even using credit cards. You may have had a similar experience.

Well I went to a big B&Q superstore today and was told by a manager that they were in a state of panic, looking around, the store was practicaly empty. :(

There has been a big drop in customers at my local Tesco the past six months, how do I know, I never have to queue anymore, and the trolleys are no longer overflowing. My local garage is down 20% in petrol sales, and the local estate agents are twiddling their thumbs. Now I presume everyone must be visiting HPC to listen to the doom mongers, or as I suspect they are up to their eyeballs in debt and have no more money to spend. <_<

Edited by Charlie The Tramp

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Yes you cannot please all the people..

David Smith is quite reasonable I think.

I have studied the economics of the housing market well, and I believe for ordinary FTbers to purchase now they must realise the real dynamics of the housing market mean they will only ever be able to afford something even a BTLer won't touch. BTLers are first in the queue the rest well well behind.

They must also think ahead and factor in rising taxation. Rents will always be cheaper than buying - thats how the market is setup now.

Even I - who believe prices and rents are set to rise - must admit that being flexible in relation to your job and your accomodation arrangements is a pretty good position to be in at this time.

Edited by brainclamp

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Does writing in bold make your point more effective?

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat." As I said from Nov 04 to May 05 when discounts were achievable. Now prices are firm and the “cheaper deal boat” has sailed away.

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You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."

Thanks for confirming what we thought: now is not a good time to buy. Your words, not mine. Cheers mate : WELCOME TO THE BEAR CAMP!

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Edited by Sledgehead

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OnlyMe   

Ooops, it's not just us nutters then.

BTL, if you've left without reading then maybe you'll you'll see something similar in the FT, in a few months/years when it has all gone pear-shaped - maybe in the obituary column.

..........

Volcker: U.S. Economic Crisis Imminent

Friday, June 10, 2005

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said he doesn't see how the U.S. can keep borrowing and consuming while letting foreign countries do all the producing.

It's a recipe for American economic disaster.

On Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported bluntly that "Mr. Volcker thinks a crisis is likely."

Volcker believes that investor confidence could fade "at some point," he said, with "damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates."

He believes a serious economic crisis is likely unavoidable as the U.S. economy is struggling with what Volcker sees as a hopelessly unsustainable relationship with the rest of the world.

"If I were a biologist I'd call this a perfect example of symbiosis," Volcker said during a February speech at Stanford University.

"Contented American consumers matched against delighted foreign producers. Happy borrowers matched against willing lenders. The difficulty is, the seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely."

Experts seem to agree that the current situation can't last.

But will there be a smooth and manageable rebalancing of the global economy - created by a slow drop in the dollar combined with a spike in foreign demand – or will the U.S. currency suddenly collapse, with skyrocketing interest rates that lead us into a global recession?

Volcker believes a crisis is unavoidable, and he claims that investors will lose their confidence "at some point," creating serious dilemma for "both exchange markets and interest rates."

As the United States faces the threats of a potential housing bubble, a massive trade deficit and the lowest level of American savings in history, the jury is out on the Federal Reserve's actions over the past five years.

The Wall Street Journal reports that while the Fed acknowledges that its response to the 2000 Dot-Com crisis is partly to blame for current economic conditions, it claims it had no other viable course of action.

The Fed slashed interest rates, and Congress provided extreme tax cuts giving American households unprecedented buying power. While the government's response did help the U.S. economy grow, it also created immense debt.

To alleviate this problem, at some point, U.S. consumers will have to curb spending and concentrate on saving – plus the economy will be forced to forego foreign investment.

Experts agree that the reaction to the economic problems after 9/11 took the country into uncharted territory. While many say the Fed's rate cuts and President Bush's tax initiatives were the right answer for recovery, no one can be sure.

"We have done what no other economy has done before, faced with an asset bubble," says Lawrence Lindsey, a one-time Fed governor and Bush adviser.

"This is the first time in history the textbook economic policy ... was used, and worked. The problem is, once you finish that chapter of the economic texts, you turn the page and the page is blank - because no one has gone through the process before."

Some economists warn that the Fed has simply replaced the Dot-Com bubble with a housing bubble that is ready to burst, draining consumer spending, driving foreign investors away from U.S. markets and nurturing numerous other conditions that could lead to a serious recession.

Says Volcker: "I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase.

"At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets ..."

By contrast, Volcker's successor is perhaps a bit less circumspect. He said, "The number of forecasts of crises ... is far in excess of the number of crises that actually occur. There is something equivalent to an invisible hand which continuously is readdressing market imbalances to reach equilibrium."

Volcker, however, doesn't have as much faith in market forces, which oddly enough brings him to the conclusion that Greenspan and the Fed are doing the right thing by raising interest rates to hold down inflation.

The former Fed chairman thinks we need to make sure foreign investors hold their confidence in the U.S. because they're the ones doing all the investing. They need to know "those trillions of dollars they are piling up are going to be protected against inflation."

Edited by OnlyMe

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If you think this is a clever trap I feel you must have missed the larger point, as ever.

So I am saying that prices are not going to crash and there was an especially good window to achieve an especially good deal a few months back. I did not say now is “not a good time to buy” just that there was an ever better window a few months ago.

As for now being a good time to buy, with population, employment, and wages rising (as is in my post) and interest rates about to fall now is a good time to buy, of course.

Trying to compare a good party with a great party still means a good time was had by all.

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Thanks for confirming what we thought: now is not a good time to buy. Your words, not mine. Cheers mate : WELCOME TO THE BEAR CAMP!

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

F*** me! Its not a good time to buy. Thanks for the advice BTLondon. I definetly wont be buying now. :P

Oh yes and welcome to the Bear Camp. Look like you are the new 'play thing' for the bears! :lol:

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You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."
If you think this is a clever trap I feel you must have missed the larger point, as ever.

So I am saying that prices are not going to crash and there was an especially good window to achieve an especially good deal a few months back. I did not say now is “not a good time to buy” just that there was an ever better window a few months ago.

As for now being a good time to buy, with population, employment, and wages rising (as is in my post) and interest rates about to fall now is a good time to buy, of course. 

Trying to compare a good party with a great party still means a good time was had by all.

But prices have dropped since then, so now must be a better time to buy, right?

Can you run the "missed boat" by me again. I'm confused. And from your post, you don't sound too sure yourself!!

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

PS : do you apply such razor sharp logic skills when deciding on a purchase?

Edited by Sledgehead

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BTLers are first in the queue the rest well well behind.

Nobody's queing to buy anywhere - you can take your pick wherever you go, at your leisure, hardly anything's selling, there's no shortage, rents aren't gaining traction........................queue? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

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Guest Charlie The Tramp   
Guest Charlie The Tramp
and interest rates about to fall now is a good time to buy, of course.

You must be a fan of Roger Bootle. Just a reminder he predicted last year that rates would be 3.5% mid 2005. Just because he predicted the last crash he now believes he is the top economic guru. I would rather go by the feeling in my water. <_<

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But prices have dropped since then, so now must be a better time to buy, right?

Can you run the "missed boat" by me again. I'm confused. And from your post, you don't sound too sure yourself!!

:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

PS : do you apply such razor sharp logic skills when deciding on a purchase?

I am confused now. Have the bears missed the boat "good prices blah blah blah" or not?

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You must be a fan of Roger Bootle. Just a reminder he predicted last year that rates would be 3.5% mid 2005. Just because he predicted the last crash he now believes he is the top economic guru. I would rather go by the feeling in my water<_<

Sure its not just time to empty that colostomy then off to bed? :huh:

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Every month that idles past whilst you “wait to buy after a crash” is a boat missed.

Why? Because prices are only going to keep rising and become ever more unobtainable for potential FTB’s who take your advice and sit on the fence.

Every month there is a boat saying, “Please get on me you monkey or you’ll never buy a property and miss out on capital gains and security.” Yet you chose to ignore it.

Please get on soon.

I will confess my original boat should have been called "ESPECIALLY good time to buy boat" or "the window of opportunity boat"

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You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."
now is a good time to buy

So is it a good time to buy or have we missed the "good time to buy" boat? Which one of your above assertions is wrong?

Edited by Sledgehead

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Every month that idles past whilst you “wait to buy after a crash” is a boat missed.

Why? Because prices are only going to keep rising and become ever more unobtainable for potential FTB’s who take your advice and sit on the fence.

Every month there is a boat saying, “Please get on me you monkey or you’ll never buy a property and miss out on capital gains and security.” Yet you chose to ignore it.

Please get on soon.

I will confess my original boat should have been called "ESPECIALLY good time to buy boat" or "the window of opportunity boat"

Now theres MORE THAN one boat!?! :rolleyes:

Think I might just wait for the flotilla in a couple of years. Thanks for the confusing advice anyway.

Edited by shakerbaby

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Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates   
Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates
Does writing in bold make your point more effective?

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat." As I said from Nov 04 to May 05 when discounts were achievable. Now prices are firm and the “cheaper deal boat” has sailed away.

BTLlondon What part of today's figures from the ODPM didn't you understand? The average property in the UK now costs £181,832, down from £183,346 in March.

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Michael  Jackson verdict about to be announced……… 10:02pm.

Hilarious : is that really the best you can do!

Imagine if you were on the jury. The verdict would be guilty on the gounds of innocence!

:lol::lol::lol:

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."
now is a good time to buy

Stop stalling and tell us: is it a good time to buy or have we missed the "good time to buy" boat? Which one of your above assertions is wrong?

Edited by Sledgehead

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Now is a good time to buy, although there was an especailly good time to by a few months back. As I said I should have said "expecially good time to buy boat"

So when are you going to buy Sledge, where do we need to get to?

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Now is a good time to buy, although there was an especailly good time to by a few months back. As I said I should have said "expecially good time to buy boat"

But you maintain:

You have missed the HMS "good time to buy boat."
now is a good time to buy

Which one of your above assertions is wrong?

Edited by Sledgehead

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