cabbagepatchkid Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Some interesting videos concerning Exponential growth here (the first link is Bartlett's lecture):http://video.google.co.uk/videosearch?q=ex...e&resnum=4# Also worth considering exponential growth in relation to quantitative easing and implications of low interest rates that are between integers 0 and 1%. For example it will be difficult to raise interest rates by 25 or 50 base points as these would now be big percentage increases for those on tracker/variable interest rate mortgages. Don't follow your logic here. So what if my 1.14% mortgage goes up to 1.39 or 1.64 or 5.64? The fun can't last for ever can it? Of course, If it went to 18.64 I'd be miffed but there would be a whole lot of people ahead of me in the miffed queue. I think there's some merit in the idea that people would be on the streets (a la poll tax + iraq + may day) if base rate went above 10% as despite the myth of BOE independence, rates are viewed as a government controlled thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salamander Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 (edited) Never heard that before.Can you show some examples of that in effect? Edit: ****** post removed Back again. Divide into 69, then add 0.35 Not quite so easy to remember though. Must... get... a... life.... Edited July 9, 2009 by narrowescape Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdman Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 The US could pay it back in magic beans Or default Doesn't have to be inflation Wages appear to be contracting. The credit-consumption-fire machine has stalled. Unless it can be restarted, wages will continue falling I see deflation and debt default. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Woods? Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 (edited) Deleted as covered by another poster Edited December 29, 2009 by D'oh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 obviously if rates are low, inflation will rise and get rid of all the debt. doesn't follow at all. look at japan. where is their inflation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share Posted December 29, 2009 doesn't follow at all. look at japan. where is their inflation? Could be bottled up waiting to explode out. The story of the Japanese bust still hasn't ended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Surely existing bond interest will continue to be payable at the issue rate regardless of future rate changes? Indeed. and Government will be forced to NOT rollover with a new bond at term. It will need to cut public spending. AND raise taxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injin Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 doesn't follow at all. look at japan. where is their inflation? http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=111445&view=findpost&p=2313770 As you admit in the above link, they exported it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!) Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=111445&view=findpost&p=2313770 As you admit in the above link, they exported it. maybe he will stop posting lies soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aa3 Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 My prediction has been the USA will never see >1% interest rates again. Something big is going on.. look before this crisis the BoE had never gone below 1.75% interest rates in its 300 year history. Now it is down at 0.5%. It is a historic shift going on imo, even though the vast majority of commentators are expecting things to soon get back to normal. Yet another thing to consider is the thought that 'there isn't much room to cut'.. thats not strictly true imo. At .5%.. well .05% is 10 times less, and .005% is 100 times less if neccessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 My prediction has been the USA will never see >1% interest rates again. Something big is going on.. look before this crisis the BoE had never gone below 1.75% interest rates in its 300 year history. Now it is down at 0.5%. It is a historic shift going on imo, even though the vast majority of commentators are expecting things to soon get back to normal. Yet another thing to consider is the thought that 'there isn't much room to cut'.. thats not strictly true imo. At .5%.. well .05% is 10 times less, and .005% is 100 times less if neccessary. whats the interest rate in Australia again? or Iceland? Or Russia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share Posted December 29, 2009 US Debt $10,996,741,662,061.05 Posted 17 March 2009 $12,118,171,720,699.64 As of today http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ So in around 9 months the US has added over $1tr to it's debt. Impressive. That's approaching 10% growth in debt in just one year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scepticus Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=111445&view=findpost&p=2313770 As you admit in the above link, they exported it. not relevant. the point is that low rates did not create inflation IN JAPAN. low rates won't cause inflation elsewhere, unless there is demand for the money elsewhere. low rates everywhere won't create monetary inflation if there is low/declining demand for money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share Posted December 29, 2009 US Debt $10,996,741,662,061.05 Posted 17 March 2009 $12,118,171,720,699.64 As of today http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ So in around 9 months the US has added over $1tr to it's debt. Impressive. That's approaching 10% growth in debt in just one year. I've just done the math on this and it's 10.20% growth in debt in just 9 months, + congress has extended this by around another $300bn. Just how long is growing debt by over 10% YoY sustainable? In under 9 years the debt doubles at a growth rate of 10%. If you factor in the other $300bn if they borrow that much that debt growth YoY will be around 13%!!! At 13% YoY it doubles in just under 7 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest absolutezero Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 doesn't follow at all. look at japan. where is their inflation? Lent out to the rest of the world over the last 10-15 years or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishman Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ Not sure how accurate this figure is but it highlights the problem of servicing the debt. The Outstanding Public Debt as of 17 Mar 2009 at 09:56:27 AM GMT is: $10,996,741,662,061.05 Outstanding current US debt is the above, assuming this clock is correct. Maybe they need to hunt high and low, searching down backs of sofas, picking up nickels and dimes they find in the park and using them to pay down that debt....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share Posted December 29, 2009 Maybe they need to hunt high and low, searching down backs of sofas, picking up nickels and dimes they find in the park and using them to pay down that debt....... Seems a sensible plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sesim Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Perhaps China, Russia, etc. are just biding time waiting to either actively destroy the dollar, as a reserve currency, by reducing their holdings in it / by only buying shorter term treasuries, and/or.. perhaps they are waiting for it to collapse of it's own accord. They, we, and the US government know the $ a dead duck. Either way, at the appropriate time, the USA will declare them to be nasty evil-doers (incidentally did you hear Obama's war speech accepting the nobel peace prize.. the words could have come out of Bush's mouth - re-listen to that again on yourtube - very spooky.), and use it as an excuse for war, then a new currency. The USA, I would argue, don't give a chuff about their debt, as they will have plenty of gung-ho war-mongering action to distract their people from the homeland reality. The enemy must be without, not within. Problem, Reaction, Solution.. etc. Then we all restart at zero with a new Fiat currencies, SDRs, whatever. Fiat currency isn't dead as a concept... it's too profitable both on the way up, and on the way down, for the banksters. It's just that it's current incarnations across the globe are in their twighlight years. Rocky road ahead.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Something that has been bothering me for a while. Scepticus, you posted a few weeks ago a reply/topic about savings and debt (apologies if not you). Demographics also seem to be your thing. Savings are a claim against work done, debt is a claim against future work, is this correct? With the west generally getting older and therefore with a slowly diminishing workforce, are we in a position where all of the debt in the west cannot be worked off? If so, who in their right minds will lend us any more money? What are the implications for IR's in this scenario? All I can see is IR increases along with savage spending cuts and higher taxes. Its just a question of when. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 20, 2015 Author Share Posted August 20, 2015 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN/ Federal Debt: Total Public Debt 2015:Q1: 18,152,056 Millions of Dollars (+ see more) Quarterly, End of Period, Not Seasonally Adjusted, GFDEBTN, Updated: 2015-05-28 4:21 PM CDT In six years since this was posted they added another $8tr approx to the total. Nearly doubled it in 6 years. Impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 (edited) china will tell us to p!ss off long before this. Interest rates can go up without inflation, you need to look through to basic supply and demand for gov debt. This is what happened in the bond crash in the thirties and caused the depression, not the stock market crash of 1929. the business of china is business. if you have ever met chinese in a commercial environment,I can assure you they are most certainly not mao-style communist, they are on the whole quite honest,very disciplined,but utterly ruthless businessmen. state capitalist is their modus operandi you won't get your bus-fare home if the product you are trying to flog can be done cheaper and do the same job....they will destroy you, and they don't go in for all the "it's got bells and whistles too" stuff, they make what gets the job done. they aren't interested in military conflict....but they are interested in snapping up core infrastucture,that can generate a steady revenue stream....which means core assets...like food,water,energy and transport production and distibution. they are basically in competition with germany over the monopolisation of said assets,both are employing mercantilism. germany has the technology,but china has the numbers. Edited August 21, 2015 by oracle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 china will tell us to p!ss off long before this. Interest rates can go up without inflation, you need to look through to basic supply and demand for gov debt. This is what happened in the bond crash in the thirties and caused the depression, not the stock market crash of 1929. the business of china is business. they aren't interested in military conflict....but they are interested in snapping up core infrastucture,that can generate a steady revenue stream....which means core assets...like food,water,energy and transport production and distibution. they are basically in competition with germany over the monopolisation of said assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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