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Gordon Brown: "i Called For Global Financial Reform Ten Years Ago"


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#16 interestrateripoff

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:16 PM

http://news.bbc.co.u...ess/2814809.stm

Monday, 3 March, 2003, 16:10 GMT

The International Monetary Fund has warned the UK it could be facing a dangerous house price bubble.

The IMF said the UK's economic prospects were generally good.

But it singled out spiralling property prices - and the possibility of a deflationary crash - as an "appreciable" risk.

The IMF's assessment came as the UK's biggest mortgage lender, Halifax, reported a 23% increase in property prices over the past 12 months.

Interest rates

The Halifax figures, released earlier on Monday, fly in the face of recent research suggesting the housing market may be cooling.

Halifax said demand remained strong and prices went up by 1.7% in February.

The Bank of England was careful to avoid fuelling a property boom by holding off from cutting interest rates for more than a year.

But it caved in last month and cut rates by a quarter of one percentage point, after pressure from industry and worries about the world economy.

Ready to respond?

Most IMF directors endorsed the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates in February.

But the international lender said monetary policy must now balance supporting domestic demand against the risk of a housing bubble.

"It was agreed that, going forward, the authorities should stand ready to respond swiftly to the changing balance of risks," the IMF said.

Among those risks are that domestic demand is being buoyed by increasingly high levels of household debt, fueled by soaring house prices and low interest rates.

Growth forecast

"Directors therefore called for heightened vigilance to these risks by the authorities, especially regarding the possible existence of a housing price bubble with its potential deflationary consequences," the IMF said in a statement.

In its annual assessment of the UK economy, the IMF predicted growth of 2.2% this year, compared to Chancellor Gordon Brown's revised forecast of 2.5%.

And it said inflation would reach 2.6%, from its current level of 2.2%, and unemployment would edge slightly higher.

"Directors noted the prospects for continued economic recovery, but they saw appreciable risks to this outlook stemming from both external and domestic uncertainties," the IMF report said.

Interest rates

Earlier, Halifax chief economist Martin Ellis said the UK housing market "remains strong".

But, he added: "There is increasingly a north/south divide with London and the South East becoming more a buyer's market, while the North remains very much a seller's market."

The company said low interest rates, low unemployment and the "affordability" of property, were continuing to drive prices.

New house building - and the number of second-hand of properties coming on to the market - remained at an historically low level, it said, adding further to pressure on prices.


Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

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#17 interestrateripoff

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:16 PM

http://www.telegraph...-inflation.html

By Edmund Conway, in Washington DC
Last Updated: 8:22PM BST 13 Apr 2007

The International Monetary Fund has backed expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again, warning that higher borrowing costs may be needed to bring the sizzling housing market back under control.

In its closely-watched World Economic Outlook, the Fund warned that rising inflation and unexpectedly strong house price inflation were key risks facing the UK. It also urged Gordon Brown to make further cuts to spending in an effort to bring the public finances back under control.

The warnings came as the Fund said the overall world economy is motoring towards its best stretch since the 1960s, as the developing powerhouses of the East would help make up for a sudden dive by the US.

However, news that the IMF thinks another increase in rates from their current level of 5.25pc will come as a disappointment for households after the Bank left borrowing costs on hold earlier this month.

The Fund raised its economic growth forecast for this year and the next to 2.9pc and 2.7pc respectively, bringing it almost in line with the Treasury's latest projections at the Budget.

It said: "Domestic demand may turn out stronger than forecast despite recent monetary tightening, given the acceleration in house prices over the past year."

"Buoyant demand and the ongoing pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic utilities prices has pushed inflation to its highest level in five years.

The combination of higher-than-targeted inflation and diminishing economic slack has prompted rate increases by the Bank of England, and inflation is expected to come down to the target by year-end. However, some further tightening may still be needed, particularly if wage pressures emerge."

In comments which are likely to irritate the Chancellor, who flies out to Washington later this week for what is likely to be his final IMF and World Bank meeting, it said: "The present expansion has provided a context for some progress towards needed fiscal consolidation, but concerns remain whether enough is being done. Tight spending control will be needed to halt the rise in public debt."

The tumbling US housing market forced the Fund to slash its growth forecast for the world's largest economy by 0.7pc to 2.2pc.


Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

smaller.jpg


#18 interestrateripoff

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:18 PM

http://www.independe...ash-415925.html

By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent in Singapore
Thursday, 14 September 2006

A sharp rise in interest rates could trigger a slump in house prices, which are overvalued by "any conventional measure", the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday.

The world's chief financial watchdog warned that soaring prices posed one of the biggest risks to the UK economy.

"House prices in Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom still look elevated, and could come under pressure in a rising interest rate environment," it said.

The fund's warning came as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors revealed that house prices in the UK are now growing at the fastest pace since May 2004 as house prices accelerated for the fifth month running in August. The balance of surveyors reporting price increases in the past three months climbed to 30 per cent in August from 24 per cent in July.

The IMF also said the chances of another rate rise were "delicately balanced" and urged Gordon Brown to use next year's three-year spending review to cut expenditure to prevent a crisis in the public finances.

However, in a boost for the Chancellor, the fund raised its estimates for growth in the UK economy this year and next, putting it closer to the Treasury's upbeat forecasts for 2006 and 2007.

In its keynote World Economic Outlook, the IMF warned that a fall in house prices - which would leave households poorer - was a potential danger for many rich countries as it would lead to consumers tightening their budgets.

"A key risk on the demand side is that continued cooling of advanced economies' housing markets will weaken household balance sheets and undercut aggregate demand," it said. "At this point, concerns centre on the US, although other markets, such as those in Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom, also still seem overvalued by most conventional measures."

This marks a harsher warning than its last forecasts in April when it said house prices had come closer to economic "fundamentals" - factors such as demand, supply and wages.

It also follows a raft of figures showing that house prices posted strong gains over the summer although the UK mortgage industry believes that the market will slow rather than embark on a renewed boom.


This took a few minutes on google to find, obviously too hard for our journalists to pay attention to what they are printing.

Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

smaller.jpg


#19 billybong

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:18 PM

He said, from one of the earlier links.

"AND BY 1997, AN INCREASINGLY TURBULENT AND INADEQUATELY
SUPERVISED INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM THREATENED TO CREATE
BOOM AND BUST ON A GLOBAL SCALE."
---------------
So it's not as if he didn't already know what the consequences OF INADEQUATE SUPERVISION would be for the UK.

BOOM AND BUST ON A GLOBAL SCALE!!

#20 interestrateripoff

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:21 PM

http://findarticles....s_/ai_n12810120

Independent, The (London), Sep 24, 2004 by JEREMY WARNER

THE INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund is worrying about the UK housing market again. It's been doing this for an awfully long time now, yet so far none of its doom laden warnings have come to pass. The UK economy has continued to prosper and the housing market with it.

Yet if you predict catastrophe for long enough, the law of averages alone suggests that one day you will be right. The IMF's latest "World Economic Outlook" is nothing if not consistent. The UK housing market is the most overvalued in the world, it finds, posing a severe challenge to the Bank of England in seeking to contain inflationary pressures while at the same time minimising the risks of a house price bust.

With now unambiguous signs of a pronounced slowdown in the housing market, and even the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee expressing concern that it might be overdoing it with the interest rate therapy, has the IMF's day finally come? If consumption and growth have been supported, if only in part, by strongly rising house prices, what happens if they begin to fall? Common sense would tell you the reverse. Indeed, it is to guard against the demand shock of a housing market crash that the Bank of England has been gradually raising interest rates. On the stitch in time saves nine principle, the Bank has been trying gently to cool the housing market without provoking an outright collapse.

The IMF thinks this the right approach, yet it can't decide whether it will do the trick. The upswing in house prices has been a mainly global phenomenon, so it follows that any downturn would also be synchronised, with corresponding implications for the global economy. Since Britain has had a disproportionately large upswing, it would presumably have an equally disproportionate downturn.

Gordon Brown and the Treasury have understandably always been dismissive of this analysis. So far they've been more right than the IMF. Support for their view comes from two papers in today's Bank of England "Quarterly Bulletin". On the face of it, the economy looks very similar at present to the way it was in the late 1980s - with rapidly rising house prices and levels of household credit. Yet it in other respects it is very different. Nominal interest rates are low and likely to remain so. Unemployment too is low and unlikely to rise by much. Household balance sheets are in general in much better shape than they were then, and are therefore better placed to cope with a fall in house prices.

The second paper finds that there isn't as big a link between high levels of equity withdrawal and booming consumption as generally thought. In fact only about a quarter of equity withdrawal is spent immediately on consumption, and that mainly on home improvements. Britain is undoubtedly entering more difficult economic waters, but there is no reason yet to issue even a storm force, let along a hurricane warning.


More at the link.

http://www.marketora.../Article48.html

Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

smaller.jpg


#21 awf

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:22 PM

It sounds like he's pulled a Dick Cheney.

In 1991 Dick Cheney was flat against invading and taking over Iraq- outlining the possible tribal conflicts between the Shias and the Sunnis as well as other issues that would make it an impossible task.

Then he left the government and went to work for Halliburton.

Fast-forward 10 years later he's back in government with Bush - we need to invade Iraq.

If Flash Gordo is telling the truth, then he's been bought out and is culpable for wilful neglect. Could the fact the Tony Bliar walked out of government and into a bunch of highly paid, part-time director roles (in name only) with large corporate institutions including one JP Morgan Chase bank have anything to do with it?

Did Gordo set out to save the world, but was then seduced by Lex Luthor who opened his eyes to the world of private initiatives and lucrative positions for someone who leaves government later (after aquiring a large list of worldwide government contacts)?
I am delurker, I accidentally changed my display name to this and now I can't change back for 30 days.

#22 interestrateripoff

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:24 PM

IMF Search for House Prices and UK

IMF Survey: House Prices Compounding Crisis
October 08, 2008
Housing prices have begun falling this year in several advanced economies. This decline is amplifying the effects of the current financial turmoil.
http://www.imf.org/e.../NUM100808A.htm - 14k - HTML

United Kingdom -- 2003 Article IV Consultation, Concluding ...
December 18, 2003
Describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the conclusion of certain missions (official staff visits, in most cases to member countries). Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use I...
http://www.imf.org/e...2003/121803.htm - 26k - HTML

United Kingdom -- 2004 Article IV Consultation, Concluding ...
December 21, 2004
Describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the conclusion of certain missions (official staff visits, in most cases to member countries). Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use I...
http://www.imf.org/e...2004/122104.htm - 25k - HTML

Transcript of a Press Conference Call on the World Economic ...
September 22, 2004
... Spain, and the United States—the United Kingdom, I should ... Just to be clear, you're expecting house prices to continue to ... are out of whack in the UK in housing ...
http://www.imf.org/e...04/tr040922.htm - 31k - HTML

Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices; Plamen Iossifov, Martin Cihák, and Amar Shanghavi; IMF Working Paper 08/247; October 1, 2008
October 01, 2008
... New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United ... in Appendix II and the residential property price database maintained ...
http://www.imf.org/e...008/wp08247.pdf - 641k - PDF
More information on this title

Transcript of a Press Briefing on the 2006 Article IV Consultation ...
March 05, 2007
... of strong and steady growth in the United Kingdom is likely ... this is our third year working on the UK, but I ... Is it something that the Bank of England should be ...
http://www.imf.org/e...07/tr070305.htm - 30k - HTML

Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2008 ...
August 06, 2008
Each Public Information Notice contains a background section, a table of selected economic indicators, and an Executive Board assessment.
http://www.imf.org/e...2008/pn0899.htm - 39k - HTML

Public Information Notice: IMF Concludes 2003 Article IV ...
March 05, 2004
Each Public Information Notice contains a background section, a table of selected economic indicators, and an Executive Board assessment.
http://www.imf.org/e...2004/pn0415.htm - 48k - HTML

Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2004 ...
March 08, 2005
Each Public Information Notice contains a background section, a table of selected economic indicators, and an Executive Board assessment.
http://www.imf.org/e...2005/pn0527.htm - 44k - HTML

IMF Survey: Twin Global Shocks Dent United Kingdom Outlook
August 11, 2008
Global financial market turmoil and high commodity prices have compounded the strains affecting the U.K. economy. The difficult economic circumstances represent a major test to the United Kingdom's much-heralded fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, the International Monetary Fund says in its annual review...
http://www.imf.org/e.../CAR081108A.htm - 18k - HTML


There's a 142 pages listed here not sure how many will relate solely to the UK, but have fun searching if you want.

It would be interesting to know when the IMF first warned about house prices.

Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

smaller.jpg


#23 billybong

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:24 PM

A few years ago commentators would read all their speeches and statements going back many years and had no fear of questioning politicians self serving contradictions. They would be able to spot the hypocrisy in so many of our politicians right away.

Not these days. For whatever reason they let them get away with it time after time.

#24 Concrete Jungle

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:29 PM

The sheer lies, arrogance and downright deceit from Gordon Brown is staggering!!
Brown warned on spending
Brown warned over tax cuts
Brown warned over public spending
IMF Cautions Brown Against Tax Hikes
IMF slashes UK growth figures, says leaked Fund report
IMF tells Brown to cut Ł5bn in budget
IMF urges Brown to cut spending as UK's public finances deteriorate
Brown rejects calls by IMF and EU to cut spending
Brown raps IMF figures on Britain
Disaster looms, but no one seems to care
UK growth set to slow, IMF warns
Brown steels himself for fresh clash with IMF over outlook for UK economy
Brown besieged over growth and borrowing plans
Brown is facing ghost of profligacy past
IMF tells Brown to squeeze his spending
Fears over light-touch regulation of foreign firms
Property could slump, warns IMF
Light touch helps City stake its claim as capital of the world
Brown dismisses fears US slowdown will trigger a worldwide recession
Ministers knew of housing bubble

#25 rw42

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:36 PM

More gems:

Clear transparent procedures for monetary and fiscal decisions include presenting a full factual picture of the national accounts, usable central bank reserves

Wasn't there a proposal a while back that the central bank would stop reporting on how much new money it's printing? and of course that future bailouts of banks could happen under parlimentary secrecy..

Because we must never return to the unsustainable burdens of debt of the 80s and 90s,

And current UK debt including PFI is......


Of course it was and is right to say that inflation is costly,
and once out of control, it is even more costly to reverse.
macroeconomic stability, based on low inflation and sound public
finances, is an absolute precondition of economic success.
indeed there is a new premium on economic stability in the global
economy. a nation state relying on investment flows from round
the world - and also vulnerable to them - now knows that
retribution for getting things wrong is swift and terrible.

Sounds pretty relevant - seems he's just concentrating on low inflation, while letting the sound public finances bit go hang.

The codes will require accurate reporting to the international
community, by each national economy, of all relevant information
- for example the size of a budget deficit, the state of bank
reserves and the level of currency liabilities.


National governments should not pick and mix which standards they
choose to meet and which standards they choose to ignore. so
proper implementation of the codes should be a condition of any
imf and world bank support. in the global economy national
governments have rights but they also have responsibilities they
must meet.


So gordon.. lead by example!

#26 Guest_sillybear2_*

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 02:49 PM

Why can't these journo's just read a few of his Mansion House speeches where he kissed their asse$ year after year after year :-

http://www.hm-treasu...press_56_04.htm
http://www.guardian.....economicpolicy
http://www.guardian....n/27/economy.uk

#27 interestrateripoff

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 03:14 PM

Why can't these journo's just read a few of his Mansion House speeches where he kissed their asse$ year after year after year :-


Too much effort?

Proof that Brown had repeated IMF / OECD / BIS warnings over house prices and did nothing!!!
Looting: The Economic Underworld Of Bankruptcy For Profit
The exponential growth of debt and the unsustainability of debt
The logic of HPI @ 10% YoY means your £100k house would be worth £1.38bn in 100 years
Paying down my mortgage with money found on the street

It's time to sue the Bank of England / Federal Reserve for GROSS NEGLIGENCE
If DEBT is the problem REPAYMENT is the solution or you default

 

"The trouble with the world was that prices were so low that only the rich people could buy and the aim of the Conference was to raise them to a point where it would again be possible for poor people to buy something."

"Northern unemployment is an acceptable price to pay for curbing southern inflation" Eddie George former Governor of the Bank of England

New digest on the credit crisis and economy Part2 Part 3

smaller.jpg


#28 bobthe~

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 03:46 PM

1. Didn't he also say no more boom and bust 10 years ago?
2. 15 years ago he made that comment about a weak currency being the sign of a weak economy and a weak government.

Well done people for providing the links and info for hopefully journos and commentators to give the ******* hell.
If the good times lasted forever, then they wouldn't be called "the good times", they would just be called "the times".

#29 Parkwell

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 03:50 PM

Another old list here.

http://www.housepric...showtopic=73101

#30 guitarman001

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Posted 26 January 2009 - 04:37 PM

Unbelievable, it's just so bloody depressing.




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