Australia Faces Its Demons

[steve99]

Yup. I saw this morning that those earning $250000 or more are $1700 better off whilst people Earning $80K are to be worse off by a similar sum.

As it should be according to the ideals of the extreme right wing so called Liberal party and god who is also an extreme right wing C-word apparently.

[Sancho Panza]

Politicians between a rock and a hard place on negative gearing

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/17/is-australia-headed-for-a-recession-and-how-credible-is-john-symonds-warning

The Aussie Home Loans founder, John Symond, warned dramatically at the weekend that Labor’s negative gearing policy could cause a recession.

He suggested house prices could fall 10% to 20%, and waves of people could go bankrupt in its aftermath, leading to “mass unemployment” if Labor got its way.

“That’s my concern, that there could be a glut of properties come on the market, force the prices down, and then all of a sudden it could be armageddon with the housing industry that’s propped up the Australian economy the last four years, it could tip it on its head,” he said.

How seriously should we be taking Symond’s concern?

The well-respected economist Saul Eslake says quite seriously, but not for the reason you may think.

Symond is one of Australia’s richest people, a multi-millionaire who made his money in mortgage lending. His opinion is often worth listening to because he knows more than most about the way in which Australia’s property industry interacts with the banking and mortgage industries.

But it’s precisely because people listen to Symond that we should be concerned, Eslake says.

“I have a great deal of respect for John Symond, [but] I think house prices are more likely to fall because someone who is as respected and loved as him says that they will fall than because of anything that is in the Labor party’s policy,” Eslake told Seven’s Sunrise program at the weekend.

“When people like Mr Symond say [Labor needs] to be careful, people like him need to be careful because his opinions carry a great deal of weight with the Australian community.”

What is the state of the debate on negative gearing?

With the federal election six weeks away, the debate about Australia’s housing policy is heating up considerably. Two main “camps” have coalesced over recent months.

In one, we have the Turnbull government, the Property Council of Australia, the Real Estate Institute of Australia, the Housing Industry Association, the rightwing thinktank the Institute of Public Affairs, and now John Symond. They don’t want to make any changes to negative gearing or the capital gains tax discount.

In the other camp, there’s the Labor party, the federal Greens, the Grattan Institute, the Labor-aligned McKell Institute, the leftwing thinktank the Australia Institute, and the former Reserve Bank governor Bernie Fraser. They do want to make changes.

The second camp’s concerns are shared, to varying degrees, by officials from the Reserve Bank, the Treasury, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the Henry tax review panel.

It’s an uncontroversial point to say that the majority of economists who’ve gone on the record to talk about negative gearing fall somewhere in the second camp.

What do supporters of negative gearing changes say about Symond’s concerns?

Labor wants to restrict negative gearing to new housing, while grandfathering arrangements for people who are negatively gearing existing dwellings. Symond says he’s concerned about that.

He says if people are only allowed to use negative gearing to buy new properties – rather than existing properties– then they’ll find it much harder to sell any properties they own, so that will make them flood the market with existing properties before Labor’s policy is introduced, leading to house prices falling dramatically.

But economists say Labor’s grandfathering arrangements ought to prevent that from happening. In fact, the grandfathering arrangements will give negative gearers less reason to want to sell their properties, they say.

Why? Because negative gearing allows investors to deduct any losses from their investments from their taxable income, helping to reduce it. If they want to keep reducing their taxable income in that way then they’ll have to hold on to their properties.

That means people should want to hold on to their negatively geared properties for as long as possible, preventing the market from being flooded, as Symond has warned.

Officials from the Reserve Bank made that exact point in their internal memo that was released after a freedom of information request last week.

When asked if there could be any negative consequences from policy changes that make negative gearing less attractive for investors, the officials said there may be a large-scale sale of negatively geared properties, but “only if changes were not grandfathered”.

Edited May 17, 2016 by Sancho Panza

[Sancho Panza]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/roger-montgomery-sees-apartment-oversupply-sendig-property-prices-south-20160516-gow0k6.html

'"It looks like Australia has a greater oversupply problem than the US did in 2007," says Mr Montgomery in a note to clients. "And after their property market collapse, it took five years before property prices began recovering."'

'While Mr Montgomery is quick to point out Australia has much stricter subprime lending and borrowing standards than the United States and things like employment, inflation expectations, interest rates, debt-to-income ratios, house-prices-to-income all influence short-term property prices, by looking at the medium-term supply-and-demand metrics, Australian house prices are running out of steam.

"For better or for worse, we have been discussing here at Montgomery HQ, and I have been sharing privately with friends, the suggestion that apartment oversupply will exacerbate a decline in property prices already cooling," he says.'

[darkmarket]

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/lending-to-australian-housing-investors-just-came-to-a-shuddering-halt-2016-6

"The value of lending to Australian housing investors tanked in April, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) earlier today.

Investor lending slumped by 5.0% from March to $11.291 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, the steepest percentage decline since October 2015.

Compared to a year earlier, the value of investor lending fell by 20.8%, an annual decline not seen since February 2009, the height of the global financial crisis."

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Hav e they faced their demons yet ?

[Kurt Barlow]

Hav e they faced their demons yet ?

There is no work - full stop. I have a telephone interview for a UK job at 9pm!

[Granit]

“It adds to the evidence that risks in the housing market have abated given that the investor share of approvals is now around 35% of the market, well down from its peak of 43% in May 2015,” says Strickland.

Is this equivalent to BTL lending? 35-43% of the market is huge.

[mattyboy1973]

Is this equivalent to BTL lending? 35-43% of the market is huge.

Yes it is, and yes - it's huge! The Australian market has been totally dysfunctional for OOs now for some time. We were probably on course to hit those sort of percentages in the UK given time, but hopefully the tax changes will put a stop to it.

Of course, it won't end well down under either. In other news today:

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/rent-in-australia-is-falling-at-the-fastest-pace-on-record-2016-6' rel="external nofollow">

Rent in Australia is falling at a record pace

[Will!]

There is no work - full stop. I have a telephone interview for a UK job at 9pm!

I've just signed an 18 month contract with Westmead Hospital in Sydney. Am I jumping on the bus just as it goes over a cliff?

[Kurt Barlow]

I've just signed an 18 month contract with Westmead Hospital in Sydney. Am I jumping on the bus just as it goes over a cliff?

Sydney and Melbourne are a lot healthier than Perth, Brisbane, Darwin or Adelaide.

[wherebee]

I've just signed an 18 month contract with Westmead Hospital in Sydney. Am I jumping on the bus just as it goes over a cliff?

Naw, you'll have loads of fun in a great country. Just enjoy it!

[Will!]

Thanks, will do!

[bear.getting.old]

I fancied moving to Oz. Went there 2006, CV in hand. Without a work visa no recruitment agency will talk even to you. Even if its to see if there are any jobs in your field for which to obtain a work visa!

House prices were crazy anyway. Oz $ too strong, sun too strong - suncream all the bloody time, too many flies. Not for me, its about time their overpriced houses took a return to reality,.

[ccc]

Went there 2006, CV in hand. Without a work visa no recruitment agency will talk even to you. Even if its to see if there are any jobs in your field for which to obtain a work visa!

Did this surprise you ?!

[mattyboy1973]

I fancied moving to Oz. Went there 2006, CV in hand. Without a work visa no recruitment agency will talk even to you. Even if its to see if there are any jobs in your field for which to obtain a work visa!

That's exactly what I did in 2003, but I managed to swing it. Got a contract position and sponsorship whilst there on a tourist visa. Not the best way to do it, but back then it was possible to get sponsored by the recruitment agencies themselves, so they were quite often happy to put you forward (IT). I don't think it's anything like as easy now.

[Sancho Panza]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/home-owners-set-to-become-the-minority-in-sydney-hilda-report-shows-20160719-gq93x3.html

'Many young Australians, like Jonathan Hoult, 43, are turning their back on home ownership, even though they could afford to buy.

"It's not that I'm in a terrible financial position, I'm just not really interested in buying," says Mr Hoult, a software developer and father of three. "I think the amount of debt people are taking on, I think it's unsustainable. From a personal point of view I would rather rent, at current prices."

The shock finding that home owners will soon be in the minority is at odds with the commonly quoted figure that two-thirds of homes are owner-occupied, the rest rental homes.

On this measure, there has been significant decline in the proportion of households that are owner-occupied, 69 per cent in 2001 to 65 per cent in 2014, the latest data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia reveals. In NSW, the fall has been even sharper and to an even lower level, from 68 per cent to 63 per cent, the survey by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne shows.

But not all adults who live in owner-occupied housing own the homes they live in, including elderly parents, siblings or live-in girlfriends or boyfriends.

At an individual level, just over half, or 51.7 per cent, of Australians aged 18-plus own a home, the HILDA data shows, down steeply from 57 per cent in 2002.'

[Silverfinger]

Nice to know that one is called young at age 43 in this Boomer world.

[FrankCostanza]

It was unfortuanate from a HPC standpoint that Labor did not win the election three weeks ago since they had the policy of scrapping negative gearing.

We'd be seeing far quicker falls if they had won it.

As in stands it's a slow decline now.

[Sancho Panza]

Nice to know that one is called young at age 43 in this Boomer world.

Quite.I didn't look at it that way but now you mention it.

It was unfortuanate from a HPC standpoint that Labor did not win the election three weeks ago since they had the policy of scrapping negative gearing.

We'd be seeing far quicker falls if they had won it.

As in stands it's a slow decline now.Some parts of Oz are really struggling but others are holding up better.

However,it's going to be brutal when it ends.Burst bubbles don't deflate slowly.

[Kurt Barlow]

Quite.I didn't look at it that way but now you mention it.

As in stands it's a slow decline now.Some parts of Oz are really struggling but others are holding up better.

However,it's going to be brutal when it ends.Burst bubbles don't deflate slowly.

I have been in the UK for 5 weeks and just got back. I don't know whether its me adjusting to dollars but boy everything seems pricey. $350 on groceries already.

[Sancho Panza]

I have been in the UK for 5 weeks and just got back. I don't know whether its me adjusting to dollars but boy everything seems pricey. $350 on groceries already.

I remember when I lived in NZ 20 years ago,you could buy Anchor butter more cheaply in the UK.Struck me as odd at the time.May have been a result of local taxation.

You'd think both NZ and Oz would have cheap food given the abundance of Agriculture,clearly,that's not the case.

When you look at the Iron Ore/Coal price,and their dominance of it's exports,it's surprising there's not been a meaningful hit on GDP.

[Sancho Panza]

http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-surge-now-back-above-1-million-domain-group-20160720-gq8qlb/

'After six months of declines, Sydney’s house prices rebounded 2.4 per cent over the June quarter, data released on Thursday shows.

The median house price in Sydney jumped back up to $1,021,968, while apartment prices increased 0.6 per cent, Domain Group’s House Price Report for June found.

But house prices are still below the September 2015 record of $1,032,899, with the market’s resurgence yet to entirely reverse the declines seen in the December and March quarters, as recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Domain. '

Up is the new down.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-surge-now-back-above-1-million-domain-group-20160720-gq8qlb/

'After six months of declines, Sydney’s house prices rebounded 2.4 per cent over the June quarter, data released on Thursday shows.

The median house price in Sydney jumped back up to $1,021,968, while apartment prices increased 0.6 per cent, Domain Group’s House Price Report for June found.

But house prices are still below the September 2015 record of $1,032,899, with the market’s resurgence yet to entirely reverse the declines seen in the December and March quarters, as recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Domain. '

Up is the new down.

Fecking hell, 1M ozzy dollars for a house. That is one f**king bubble

[Sancho Panza]

Fecking hell, 1M ozzy dollars for a house. That is one f**king bubble

Much like Northamptonshire Count,they have a shortage of land....innit!

[South Lorne]

Nice to know that one is called young at age 43 in this Boomer world.

...more like people are living longer ...70 is the new 50.....