cerbera

Really wouldnt beat yourself up about renting. Even if prices only fall another 5%, the interest your earning & the 5% will more than cover your rent. Only advice is if you are looking to start a family & stay in the house for the forseeable future, then schools come into the equation - the areas your looking at are pretty poor in this respect, Id be looking at Hexham, Morpeth, Ponteland & Whitley Bay - the latter being probably the most suitable due to the Metro. One possibility could be the Park Avenue house in the Redc auction - 3 storey Victorian 5/6 beds overlooking the park (was on ML estates books), Im hearing the bank are going to have to accept £110k (so £125k with costs) . You would need to spend £20k on it, but even in todays market I would think that £150k was pretty good value.

Appologies, it was in reference to the '50% off' article in the Exclusive magazine that mentioned the Bar flat, stating that you would be mad to miss the current property market bargains. I took it that Neil was refering to this article.

Amazing how 'half price' & '50% off' still work. For those looking past that, thoughts of 5% plus yields is going to be tempting to many.

Allsops auction results for Feb make interesting reading. 90% sales (499 lots - 53 still available) & vast majority (especially London) well above guide. One estimated at 1-1.2m made twice that. Not suggesting the good time start here & now but maybe pause for thought????

Yes, I've just downloaded the catalogue from their website, what ever next? I guess they had to try something, the listings as they were smacked of desperation, what with twenty-eight properties in the same development you would not touch it with a barge pole...unless of course you were tricked into thinking that there was in fact a massive amount of interest and these bargains were being snapped up! GUARENTEED BARGAINS AT THE PATTINSON AUCTIONS! Builder friend who specialises in reclaimation work - using old brick, old timber frames in new builds - really lovely stuff, is off to East Germany and Poland to buy houses for transportation back to the UK! He really isnt insane & has done a lot of work on it. So get together lads & dont bid against each other!!!!..............thought it might bring a smile to a few faces, Bob you would love East Germany you would be able to moan 24/7!!

So, do you have any tips for bargains in Darras Hall where there are going to be lots of nice big walls for putting bookshelves on? I look at DH from time to time, but they've all bought into the mystique of the dormer window and the sloping roof, and most of the straight walls taken up with windows. So all these expensive houses have to be written off as "too small". One other query about DH - this is just something I've wanted to ask someone who knows it - are there any shops in DH itself, or do you have to get out the 4x4 and go to Ponteland? My tip would be to wait, distressed sales are only just staring to come on the market. Developers were making 50% mark ups on some development costs at the peak. Property on Western Way bought for 600k, house knocked down & replacement put on for 278k, then sold within 12months for 1.6m. If you feel prices will become more wage related & more in line with cost/value, these properties have a hell of a way to fall. There are probably 2-3000 houses on Darras 90% of them individual in size/design ,so its always worth keeping an eye on them. Darras plus points are sqm, good schools, reputation, 15min drive into town & privacy (for a housing estate). Down points are the whole estate is built on clay so be careful if looking at those on a slope & you will not find anything pre40s unless you buy the old mill (runnymede road). Been in Darras last 10 years & spent my childhood there, never owned a 4x4 (sorry Bob) & only ever got stuck a couple of times in 25-30 years, certainly less of a concern then Morpeth/Corbridge/Hexham.

Thanks for that Bob, full of stereotypes. You seem obsessed with the car I drive, Why?? Unfortunately you dont seen to understand what Im trying to say, maybe thats my fault & I havent been clear - I wont press it but would like to point out a few things; You believe all developers are as per the the poor saps depicted on the TV - I think this is wrong, you will find most are far more savy then this sad little view, with a far more bearish outlook then you might think. If you look back to my posts in the summer you will find I sold my last property in Feb & felt the market would fall maybe upto 10% this year (not nice but not a disaster for a developers margin) thus was not buying until the market stabalized - I was WRONG, falls in market maybe yes I could see that, liquidity drying up totally, no never saw that coming - unlike you of course, you must be reading this in Monaco these days. I have talked about returns on my money, hense BTL, does that sound like Im borrowing money???? I LOVE property development, love the process & love the tangible results, nothing else I would rather do. If anyone was going to empathise with that surely it would be the serial bloggers on here? My whole reason for getting into property was with the goal of living mortgage free, I have been helped massively with the market & Im the first to admit that. But markets are never just all up & all down. The properties I have talked about on here offer double figure yields (most seem to agree - please tell me if Im wrong) others such a 3 bed Sandyford house in BM auction guided at £220k currently let at £845 dont - both auction properties in a falling market, but in my opinion both offering vastly different results. I was simply trying to make a point about returns on investment in the current climate & how I was looking at things. Nowhere have I stated that my view is correct, I was just wanting people opinions on my thoughts, not on what I do. I totally understand Neils view on houseprice ratio to wages & his thoughts on a Japanese senario developing, anybody who discounted this as impossible would be a fool. Sorry Im going on but would still like to ask you for your answer to my original question, but wont be holding my breath.

Also got to remember Ponteland & Darras Hall are seperate entities when it comes house prices, the latter probably 50% more expensive & housing is almost exclusively detached.

Its around 1000 acres (from memory)- minimum 0.25 acre - would estimate somewhere between 2-3000 houses. Huge amount of property has been on the market for the best part of a year, so doubt these would be distressed sales, I think distressed sales will hit the market over the coming 12 months, much as everywhere else.

Your guess is as good as mine at the moment. Decent 5 bed will cost you roughly £200k (can vary dramatically, depending on knowledge/ experience) to build. At present council only allowing 1 build per plot (plots range from 0.25-2.00 acres). At the peak you were looking at anything from £400k to several million - Shearer paid btw £5-10m I think. Also depends on where in Darras - Runnymede Rd, Darras Road & bottom of Western Way are the most expensive - can be as much as 3 times the costs of the cheaper Darras areas. My personal feeling is we will see dramatic falls in some parts of Darras (already have - the edge hill auction property discussed on here). There are those that have been there for decades, so quite simply couldnt really care about house prices & those at the top end of the professional sector (medial, law etc) who are unlikely to be hit too hard by the recession. However there are a lot of 'at risk' small business owners & those with stupid levels of personal gearing - not a huge market out there for £3k a month rentals & its a big gap from £150k a year earnings to £15k at the supermarket! - so will be hand your keys back time & see what the bank will get you at auction.

I would be interested in some land at a knock down price, Darras Hall, Woolsington, or Gosforth. I'm only looking for 0.125 of an acre. My day job is property development, although that has been on hold for most of the year, hense the look at BTL. With regards to your search you would have to cancel Darras as smallest plot by law is 0.25 acre. In the long term (dont worry not suggesting buying now!!) I feel Darras is the best bet, yes im probably biased, but you will be surprised how good the 'crappy' Darras house is. If you discard the market & currently look at comparables in Gosforth, Jesmond, Darras & Whitley Bay then I think Darras stands out a mile on value, it will come down to whether you value period features or space & privacy. With regards to rebuilds you are already looking at a 20-25% reduction in build costs, the trade is desperate. I know one builder who until recently was working on a 800k build (overall value in 2.5m bracket), who is this week building a 4k conservatory.

As you said, the online auction means nothing, no REAL bids last time even at £80k. Im not saying that I would buy Tunstall Vale, not really my thing although you never know, just that the returns on buy to let look to be at the point where investors with money will be attracted bact to the market.