Patient London FTB

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Everything posted by Patient London FTB

  1. Have posted this on the 'Prime London crashing?' thread already but worth a mention here too. Rightmove average time to sell in London published today as part of Feb 2018 report: 75 days in Feb 2018 vs 64 days in Feb 2017 (up 17%) The annual rate of increase in time taken to sell in London has been 17% or above since December 2016, barring a blip in July 2017.
  2. Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    Rightmove average time to sell in London published today as part of Feb 2018 report: 75 days in Feb 2018 vs 64 days in Feb 2017 (up 17%) The annual rate of increase in time taken to sell has been 17% or above since December 2016, barring a blip in July 2017.
  3. Remortgagefest!

    Maybe margin calls on now higher-hurdle BTL mortgages are producing the need to extract further equity from main residences?
  4. Remortgagefest!

    Latest numbers from UK Finance show a huge amount of remortgaging going on in January. 49,800 homeowner remortgages, which they say is a nine-year high, and about 25% above Jan 2017. 16,500 BTL remortgages, which is higher than the rush in Mar 2016 to beat the stamp duty deadline. What's going on?
  5. Remortgagefest!

    Wonder if the spurt in OO remortgaging is somehow linked?
  6. The rats are jumping ship...SELL SELL SELL

    This is fun, but it would be even better if there was also a forum where overseas investors are panicking about the value of their flats. Anyone know of one?
  7. Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    And here's a picture of 2014/16 breed London BTL entrants making ready to sell up and trouser their profits
  8. Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    Gaywood Street has gone I think. Not sure this was the place in question, but 27 Gaywood Street sold in Dec for £1,075,000. Very respectably close to the £1.1m asking price if so.
  9. London property prices plunge as Brexit effect deepens

    Great spot. Good things come to those who wait ...
  10. .

    The dot could be an early sign of the return of CGNAO It’ll be +++ soon
  11. Buy To Let Finance Watch

    PRA reviewing use of five-year fixes in portfolio lending
  12. IMO the motivation of this group of priced out but undecided voters is giving the Tories a good kicking for the situation they find themselves in, rather than any rational belief that Labour can magically price them in. They also know that a Labour govt probably means a house price crash and they don't see much harm in that coming about. And there's probably a strong overlap between this group and the voters who want to give the Tories a kicking over Brexit and the voters who are worried about Tory cuts to public services, even if they have achieved home ownership. The odds don't look good for the Tories to me. On the one hand if things carry on in the same direction as the past few years, then Labour will attract more and more of the middle-class voters who should be naturally Tory as someone said upthread. On the other, if the trend reverses and there's a house price crash it will probably hit London and the South East the hardest at which point even faithful Tory voters will be getting the pitchforks out for May. It's not that Labour have to come up with anything particularly clever on housing policy to get in. It serves their purpose to keep hammering home the message about how rigged the Tory housing market is against the young and how poor their housebuilding record is.
  13. Indeed! It's kind of hard to see why LCP want this data out there isn't it? Maybe they decided they had better find out a bit more about the performance of the market, so they went to Acadata, and Acadata said ok we'll do you a special index but on condition we get some PR out of it.
  14. As far as I can see London Central Portfolio’s VI is in telling their investors how well the portfolios of traditional Prime Central London rental stock they have assembled for them are holding up in price and rents (whether this index bears that out I don’t have time to check right now). LCP have been very keen in the past (and I imagine still are) to slate the performance of newbuild developments, with which they’re competing for investment dollars.
  15. hello hello Resi Index (Feb 2018).pdf
  16. Is Prime London Crashing? - Merged Threads

    The problem (for us) is the developers still have the cash to wait it out. Either their funding comes from overseas or if they’re UK-based they swore off debt after nearly going under in 2009. To give the thread some love, I can say in my area (SE1) there are 25% more listings for sale than last year. Also I’m hearing more and more about developers who are being given back flats they thought they had sold.
  17. Buy To Let Finance Watch

    It'd be interesting to see the interaction with the lack of rental growth in London since early 2016 too. "Sir, I'm afraid our ICR is now 145%, so we can't roll over your entire £x loan. We can only lend you £(0.9x), unless you're able to show us you can top up your rental income with your personal income?"
  18. Buy To Let Finance Watch

    What about the stuff written in early 2016? Any idea how many 2-year deals are coming to an end and now need to be assessed on much harsher terms?
  19. Help to buy getting more funds

    Remember the Labour manifesto envisioned keeping HTB going til 2027 (!). They know they need votes from aspiring homeowners as well as renters. Reckon they will push developers into building more affordable housing, including council housing, and less luxury housing. And they'll tax big houses, but very carefully to avoid a backlash from elderly homeowners. BTL will be a tempting hit for them, they've already promised some form of rent control, and I think they'll also look at intervening in the purpose-built student accommodation market.
  20. And because they're in need of BTL virgins, yes
  21. They seem legit on the regulation side. From their website: It looks like they're copying the Property Partner model. Transfer the risk of ownership to other investors, just make a living taking a 2% cut on initial investments, and probably a substantial management fee too. As you point out, the yields are laughable. I'm sure there's going to be plenty of willing sellers to Vesta from the portfolio LLs exiting, and probably Vesta can screw them down on price, but I question how big the pool of potential buyer-investors is. Property Partner has been going for just over two years and has only attracted 11,271 investors who have put in a total of £61.3m - that's a drop in the ocean compared to the size of the BTL sector.
  22. Looks from this graph on page 6 of the Bank's statistical bulletin like the year-on-year comparison with January 2017 is flat, despite the growth from December.
  23. Buy To Let Finance Watch

    Skipton going balls deep into BTL lending, from its results out today. £824.1m, or 18.4%, of the Group's gross lending during the year was on buy-to-let mortgages (2016: £588.0m or 14.8%); The Group net interest margin reduced to 1.10% (2016: 1.18% (restated)), whilst net interest income increased to £220.6m (2016: £215.6m (restated)), an increase of £5.0m (or 2.3%) The Society drew down £1.1bn of funding under the Government's Term Funding Scheme (TFS) during the year (2016: £0.3bn) and at the end of the year had drawn a total of £1.4bn under the scheme (2016: £0.3bn). In addition the Society repaid the outstanding funding from the Government's Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). The amount outstanding at the end of 2016 was £1.0bn;
  24. Seems the only forced/motivated sellers are London councils