Patient London FTB

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Posts posted by Patient London FTB


  1. 55 minutes ago, hi5lo5 said:

    It is quite possible. Mad gains MEW on the main residence went on as deposit for a second home just before mad rush.

    Maybe margin calls on now higher-hurdle BTL mortgages are producing the need to extract further equity from main residences? 


  2. Latest numbers from UK Finance show a huge amount of remortgaging going on in January. 

    49,800 homeowner remortgages, which they say is a nine-year high, and about 25% above Jan 2017. 

    16,500 BTL remortgages, which is higher than the rush in Mar 2016 to beat the stamp duty deadline. 

    What's going on? 


  3. On 20/02/2018 at 9:47 AM, Frizzers said:

    Yes.

    The final price on Gladstone Street is interesting. This was my template from back then - 

    * They got it cheap, given the market at that time (2014 madness) for £910k . They're asking a lot at £1.25.

    * Bears have scored the first goal, with price reduction. 1-0 up.

    * If it gets, above £1.15 = market is ok, bulls win, 2-1.

    * Around £1.1 = stagnant market, but it still sold. Draw.

    * Closer to £1m = hard fought 2:1 victory for bears, but no pushover

    * Below £1m, "you'll never walk alone". London is falling.

     

    So given that it went for £998,000, I think we'll go with a 2:1 hard fought victory for the bears - which I think is about the state of the market.

    Gaywood Street has gone I think. Not sure this was the place in question, but 27 Gaywood Street sold in Dec for £1,075,000. Very respectably close to the £1.1m asking price if so. 


  4. 1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

    How does voting Labour help them "get on the ladder"?

    IMO the motivation of this group of priced out but undecided voters is giving the Tories a good kicking for the situation they find themselves in, rather than any rational belief that Labour can magically price them in. They also know that a Labour govt probably means a house price crash and they don't see much harm in that coming about. And there's probably a strong overlap between this group and the voters who want to give the Tories a kicking over Brexit and the voters who are worried about Tory cuts to public services, even if they have achieved home ownership. 

    The odds don't look good for the Tories to me. On the one hand if things carry on in the same direction as the past few years, then Labour will attract more and more of the middle-class voters who should be naturally Tory as someone said upthread. On the other, if the trend reverses and there's a house price crash it will probably hit London and the South East the hardest at which point even faithful Tory voters will be getting the pitchforks out for May. 

    It's not that Labour have to come up with anything particularly clever on housing policy to get in. It serves their purpose to keep hammering home the message about how rigged the Tory housing market is against the young and how poor their housebuilding record is. 


  5. 41 minutes ago, Neverwhere said:

    This is pretty amusing  to my mind:

    (Emphasis added.)

    Indeed! It's kind of hard to see why LCP want this data out there isn't it? Maybe they decided they had better find out a bit more about the performance of the market, so they went to Acadata, and Acadata said ok we'll do you a special index but on condition we get some PR out of it. 


  6. 5 hours ago, rantnrave said:

    Quite.

    What is the VI here? Ssomeone is paying for this work to be done and wants a housing market on the brink of freefall to be portrayed.

    About five years ago, LSL/Acadametrics put out a much ignored house price index. It was mostly scorned on this site for somehow managing to always be positive. Democorruptcy did some great digging and revealed that the clients Acadametrics was serving included a whole range of money lenders from our fine and upstanding banking sector. The report touted itself as the most comprehensive data out there, which IIRC none other than the legend that is FreeTrader (sorely missed on this forum) concurred with.

    Edit to add: Looks like same clients -

    http://www.acadata.co.uk/ourClients.php

    As far as I can see London Central Portfolio’s VI is in telling their investors how well the portfolios of traditional Prime Central London rental stock they have assembled for them are holding up in price and rents (whether this index bears that out I don’t have time to check right now). LCP have been very keen in the past (and I imagine still are) to slate the performance of newbuild developments, with which they’re competing for investment dollars. 


  7. 5 hours ago, Option5 said:

    The crash has already happened for these developers, they just aren't facing up to it yet.

    The problem (for us) is the developers still have the cash to wait it out. Either their funding comes from overseas or if they’re UK-based they swore off debt after nearly going under in 2009. 

    To give the thread some love, I can say in my area (SE1) there are 25% more listings for sale than last year. Also I’m hearing more and more about developers who are being given back flats they thought they had sold. 

     


  8. 8 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

    Non-trivial number I'd have thought. The December 2016 CMLThe profile ofUK private landlords report has a little something on incomes.

    It'd be interesting to see the interaction with the lack of rental growth in London since early 2016 too. 

    "Sir, I'm afraid our ICR is now 145%, so we can't roll over your entire £x loan. We can only lend you £(0.9x), unless you're able to show us you can top up your rental income with your personal income?" 


  9. 5 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

    The more recent mortgage lending on the challengers' books will have been written so that it washes its face on a 5.5% mortgage rate

    What about the stuff written in early 2016? Any idea how many 2-year deals are coming to an end and now need to be assessed on much harsher terms? 


  10. 15 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

    The prospect of a Labour government is one of the (many) factors that makes me wary of buying now. If Corbyn becomes PM, I think the costs (taxes) on owning property will increase significantly, and to a greater extent for more expensive houses. If costs go up, prices usually have to come down to compensate. I imagine the best time to buy would probably be a couple of budgets into a Corbyn government, when people have started to be fearful of his tax rises, and prices have adjusted to compensate for that fear.

    Remember the Labour manifesto envisioned keeping HTB going til 2027 (!). They know they need votes from aspiring homeowners as well as renters. Reckon they will push developers into building more affordable housing, including council housing, and less luxury housing. And they'll tax big houses, but very carefully to avoid a backlash from elderly homeowners. BTL will be a tempting hit for them, they've already promised some form of rent control, and I think they'll also look at intervening in the purpose-built student accommodation market. 

     

     


  11. 5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

    Wow. She was slow to selling shovels.

    Oh fux. Just had a look at vesta.

    Inc in jan 2017.

    If they are sellling parts of btl then are subject to securities laws. Or trading illegally.

    The gross yields on the listed properties are 4.1%!!

    No accounts. Just a blank cinfirmation filing. 

     

    They seem legit on the regulation side. From their website: 

    5a9a8cfa177ef_ScreenShot2018-03-03at11_54_02.thumb.png.30efa00b85c7e050a28b1e96bd69a470.png

    It looks like they're copying the Property Partner model. Transfer the risk of ownership to other investors, just make a living taking a 2% cut on initial investments, and probably a substantial management fee too. 

    As you point out, the yields are laughable. I'm sure there's going to be plenty of willing sellers to Vesta from the portfolio LLs exiting, and probably Vesta can screw them down on price, but I question how big the pool of potential buyer-investors is. Property Partner has been going for just over two years and has only attracted 11,271 investors who have put in a total of £61.3m - that's a drop in the ocean compared to the size of the BTL sector.