Patient London FTB

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  1. I think she has achieved a pyrrhic defeat.
  2. From Barratts' latest results announcement back in Feb: Completions in London were lower at 367 (2015: 842) in line with the Group’s planned build programme. The Group expects a significant increase in completions on wholly owned sites in London in the second half. In London, for homes with higher selling price points, we have supplemented our private sales with other sales agreements: a build and sale agreement on a bespoke development of 39 apartments for a total value of £47m, completion of a 54 apartment sale at our JV sites in Fulham and Aldgate and in January we exchanged on a build and sale agreement for 118 apartments at our Nine Elms JV site.
  3. I'm slightly fascinated by that chart at the moment. This is the pent-up demand that we so often hear about, but if these people do start moving out it creates more empty nesters so in theory frees up more family homes to go onto the sales and lettings markets. (The chart covers all tenures - owner-occupied, private rented and social housing.) What would 'going back to normal' on this chart mean? Maybe back to 2.6m - 2.7m young people living with parents? That would mean roughly 600,000 - 700,000 people moving out of their parents' home. In just two years from 1996 to 1998 we got 300,000 people doing that. Presumably due to economic recovery and housebuilding. My theory on the rise in numbers is that it kicked in in 2003 as housebuilding lagged and then went into overdrive with the 2008 financial crisis and the consequent fall in housebuilding. If you were lucky enough to move out of home, you were more likely to go into rented accommodation than buy your own place. I can track down the source for that assertion when I have a bit more time. From 2013 we get Help to Buy and a housebuilding recovery, which is going to accelerate over the next few years. So now what?
  4. Apologies for slightly raining on the parade but we need to factor in another source of demand for housing, which is young people who have decided to stay living with their parents rather than find their own housing (to buy or rent). If rising rents and less affordable house prices have led this group to grow over recent years, then falling rents and more affordable house prices should make it shrink again. Here are their absolute numbers (data from ONS): The proportion they make of their age group has followed roughly the same rising trend. It was a low of 19% in 1998 and a high of 25% in 2013 and 2014. However, it's actually dropping already, to 24% in 2015 and 2016.
  5. Seems from the comments like the story originally, earlier today, said the house had SOLD for £1.1m. Daily Fail.
  6. 1) Buy a shitty second-hand 1997 election battlebus at auction. 2) Drive up the M4 towards Croydon picking up fellow landlords on the way. 3) Charge fellow landlords rent and a six-week deposit to get on the BTLbus.
  7. Ros should stand in Barwell's constituency. Fire up the battlebus!
  8. The Rose Portfolio? Is it called that because it wilts and dies just four days after you buy it?
  9. Although it was good to see Corbyn mention the housing crisis early when he made his response to May calling the election. Presumably meaning it will be fairly prominent in the election campaigning.
  10. It's a foregone conclusion that the Tories win this with a big majority, like it or not (I don't). The question is what will May do about housing and tax policy once she has the power to do what she wants in Parliament.
  11. They know they haven't got much longer before their London and the South East voters really start worrying about a crash. Win the election, get five years' grace to deal with it.
  12. They've only been doing the stuff you describe in the last few years I think. They definitely see their future in building purpose-built developments for rent in cities, but their historic business is in the North East and in existing property. A lot of it was buying cheap houses with sitting tenants on rent-controlled tenancies for life, which gives them a big revaluation in the capital value of the property on the end of the tenancy.