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About guest_northshore

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  1. Bitcoin – Is it me?

    You're right about motivations and justifications mirroring the dynamics and psychology of housing. Quite tragic to have it pinned on hpc. I should confess to some realised profit and skin in the game from when it was just a nerd plaything, but in currency and/or store of value terms has always been a steaming pile of economic nonsense. There are wider issues about future potential for local private monies and perhaps progression to central bank issued digital currency, but that's not what cryptocurrencies are about to date. Personal opinion: Don't confuse price in a zero-sum game with value of a (un)productive investment. If interested some critical/cynical blogs:
  2. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    That was just at Interactive Brokers. They've since changed it to allow shorting, although at 5x margin of a long. Biggest general problem is that a long has max risk of price = 0, short that price = anything higher. In reality most futures trades aren't outright positions anyway, usually taking a view on a particular aspect or risk management - hedges, spread trades or structures with/without options. In a particularly illiquid and opaque market that again likely dampens interest in shorting because downside risk/reward is too great (of being outright short).
  3. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Many seem to buy into Austrian economics, but even Austrians don't seem to buy into Bitcoin economics:
  4. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    I'm aware it's advertising. No I don't see it. I'm not into marketing any specific bet to people I don't know on a forum saving for somewhere to live, particularly one at 10-20x volatility of the S&P or 2-3x volatility of the 2000 Nasdaq.
  5. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Not upset just think it's tactless to post running pnl on a forum that is or was focused on those troubled or priced-out by financialisation. You can obviously post as you please but nobody else does it - be that here or in bonds, equities, housing etc.
  6. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Yeah pyramid selling. Well done. You could do well at Avon.
  7. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    In retrospect I don't think my buying/selling/buying @ £60-£200 in a mix of computer game for real money & naive hope for something different reflects anything positive. About the market or what it's evolved into. You better hope others share your outlook and there isn't a rapid or protracted drop, as most here don't seem to have a clue about how aspects of their favourite 'investment' drivers work, such as volatility and futures trading.
  8. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    And 87% by 0.6%: Probably 'trading' with each other. That's what most traders would do given an unregulated opportunity to corner a market. "So I buy an apple for a buck from you but I sell it back to you for 2 bucks. I Have 2 bucks and you have a 2 buck apple. You sell that to me for 4 bucks and you have 4 bucks and I have a four buck apple. 8 bucks, 16 bucks... We do this a few times until you have just bought a million+ buck apple from me and I can't afford to buy it back for 2 million bucks. So you cut the price to 1.4m and sell me a 50% share in the apple for 700k. So we are now back flat on our cash positions but we both own a 700k share in the apple. Wow."
  9. Bcbs Risk-Weights

    Thanks for the analysis/explanations above.
  10. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    BTC one year annualised volatility 90% and 21-day annualised 136%. Cboe have raised initial margin to 44%, and maintenance margin to 40%. If the trend and volatility perpetuates that will increase, and longs likely to exit exposure via futures. I wish them good luck.
  11. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Not a simple endeavour. Perhaps of interest on the stablecoin idea, discussing a recent proposal called basecoin:
  12. Homeless chlidren
  13. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Can’t wait. Most seem capable of tact, but I particularly enjoy the marketing that rubs others' noses in asset hoarding or revels in a hypothetical mechanism to increase others' housing costs.
  14. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Be sure to keep giving us daily account updates, as I definitely give a sh1t about how your unrealised PnL's doing. Perhaps you could add your monthly house price mark to market with every index release, for the hpc jump-the-shark full monty.
  15. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Price leads difficulty. Would require a fundamentally different mining and supply method, or a lower price.