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About guest_northshore

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  1. Australia Faces Its Demons

    Newtown must have changed a lot. Wasn't remotely a 'premier' area of $1m houses when I lived in Sydney (quite a while ago now). Edit - actually looks much the same on street view.
  2. Extended prices, extended borrowings and fewer BTL buyers = unwillingness to increase build out rates without even greater subsidies because that would lower their profits. Not extortion or a cartel at all.
  3. Only posted for info, not opinion. But I think the problem is landlordism not tenants. ie. reword that that as 'the only difference is that those fundamentally receiving the additional tax in lieu of Govt (landlords) don't have to earn it'. My preference is for zero private rent and housing subsidy, land/home owners compensating everybody else for the right to exclude rather than vice versa, and the option of public housing for all at break even cost.
  4. No, unchanged LHA rates. May rise for areas able to receive 'Targeted Affordability Funding', where applicable (which itself may just offset discretionary housing payment top-ups paid by councils).
  5. They've removed the cap for PRS, but the rates are unchanged.
  6. That's not really the vibe of their analysis. Basically a dismal past decade, crappy economy and questionable Gov choices all combining for depressed prospects. Although the IFS taking an opportunity to grumble about the deficit isn't a shocker, even if a reflection of Gov priorities.
  7. The rats are jumping ship...SELL SELL SELL

    Unsecured interbank lending isn't so much of a thing these days. Higher Libor probably just reflects higher money market rates (commercial paper) - due to increased T-Bill issuance, some relatively higher commercial paper issuance, and maybe impact from US tax reforms.
  8. Theresa May is a Nimby

    On Letwin's review noted in your link - an update before Draft Analysis in June: "...I am not persuaded that these limitations* (which might well become biting constraints in the future) are in fact the primary determinants of the speed of build out on large permitted sites at present. They are components of the velocity of build out; but they are not the fundamental rate-setting feature. The fundamental driver of build out rates once detailed planning permission is granted for large sites appears to be the ‘absorption rate’ – the rate at which newly constructed homes can be sold into (or are believed by the house-builder to be able to be sold successfully into) the local market without materially disturbing the market price ... The principal reason why house-builders are in a position to exercise control over these key drivers of sales rates appears to be that there are limited opportunities for rivals to enter large sites and compete for customers by offering different types of homes at different price-points and with different tenures ...This in turn limits the rate at which the house-builder will build out the ‘affordable’ and ‘social rented’ housing" * Labour, materials, capital, logistics, utilities installations, land remediation, infrastructure
  9. OBR on First-time buyers’ relief: "so far it has cost more than originally expected – the number of sales benefitting has been broadly as expected, but their average price has been slightly higher than assumed. While this early evidence should be treated with caution, there is no clear reason why the higher average prices should be treated as a temporary phenomenon. We have therefore reflected them in our forecast for future years, lowering SDLT receipts by around £100 million a year from 2018-19 onwards. This suggests the annual cost of the relief could be around 15 to 20 per cent higher than expected."
  10. First HTB fees due next month

    FT - 'UK Treasury looks to sell £7.4bn Help to Buy loan book' "The UK government is in talks with large investors to sell its £7.4bn Help to Buy loan book, ahead of receiving its first fees from borrowers in April..."
  11. Rightmove Hidden HPI Report feb 18

    It came out 3 weeks ago. March due next monday.
  12. LSL Acadata: -2.6% yoy London in Jan (from adjusted -1.0% in Nov) +0.6% yoy England and Wales in Feb They've recalculated and updated the mix adjustment this month, from weighting based on 13-16 transactions to 14-17. That has broadly decreased the average house price, by shifting away from SE. Acadata E&W HPI News Release February 18.pdf
  13. £871 million allocated for new housing unspent.

    Where does the article say 'Councils have returned £871 million pounds ear-marked to build new affordable housing'? Or an inference that 'Councils are cutting back on commissioning new housing when central government are showering them with cash to do so'? It seems to mix up 16/17 and 17/18, but says the DCLG has failed to spend £220m, with little detail of who (councils, housing associations?) or why (LHA cap, RTB financing, new regs, budget constraints, Gov approved?) & GLA returned £65m. There's more detail of what, including £329m for the binned Starter Homes programme in the links below.
  14. Housing - it's a global problem

    I am thanks. Trust you are too.