darkmarket

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About darkmarket

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  1. "the people of the UK also have reason to value stable growth, jobs and incomes. And in exceptional circumstances, trade-offs between real stability and inflation can arise that monetary policy is required to balance. This is now the case given the decision of the people of the United Kingdom to leave the EU." "Suppose the MPC had not responded in this timely, coherent, and comprehensive way... fully offsetting the persistent effects of sterling’s depreciation on inflation would have required exerting further downward pressure on domestic costs. And that would have meant even more lost output and a total disregard for higher unemployment. Given our remit, that would have been undesirable." "High inflation hurts those, particularly the worst off in society, who don’t hold equities or property as well as those whose incomes are fixed in nominal terms." "Over the next few years, the magnitude of the effects of this adjustment on the economy’s supply potential, domestic demand, and the value of sterling will be somewhat uncertain; and this process will have a significant bearing on inflation. Whatever transpires, the MPC will manage monetary policy to achieve the inflation target in a sustainable manner consistent with the preferences and instructions of the people of the United Kingdom." "The flexibility and dynamism of this economy will help it adjust as its relationship with the EU becomes clearer and new opportunities with the rest of the world open up." "The MPC responded to this outlook by reducing Bank Rate by 25 basis points, announcing £70 billion of asset purchases, and by launching a Term Funding Scheme to ensure banks passed through lower interest rates to end borrowers." Carney's delivery suggested someone wrote the speech for him and he hadn't even read it through beforehand. Amartya Sen's speech showed the difference between someone who understands economics, and someone who understands economics and its role in society.
  2. I'm seeing some consensus around vigilance. I'm also expecting: recommendations for leaving the EU with minimum change to the status quo; a defence of the post-referendum stimulus package; a reference to Davos and inequality, explaining how BoE actions favour all sectors of society; passing mention of how he's not going anywhere; claims that any risks come from overseas but the economy is in good shape and can withstand any shocks. Not expecting: any mention of grotesque market distortions and asset bubbles created by a centrally-planned economy serving financial sector interests; an admission that private credit is a systemic risk but the Term Funding Scheme is designed to exacerbate exactly that risk; criticism of corporate buybacks at the expense of investment in future productivity; any suggestions as to how future generations are supposed to pay off the hundreds of billions in debt for which the Bank is responsible.
  3. First speech of current year from Carney takes place this evening, broadcast here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2017/954.aspx
  4. I quite agree with you there, I just think it's more credible if the arguments are based on facts. If we start with the assumption that life expectancy is getting longer, add the expectation that based on this retirement ages will be increased, we start to get to the core of the problem - there aren't enough jobs for everyone, opportunities for career development are hampered, and many, if not most, people won't have the job security to take on mortgages of this duration and still have an asset at the end of the term. That's probably the objective.
  5. You did say you were sceptical about increased life expectancy, and you were "happy to be corrected if there is data to support this." I provided you with World Bank data showing increased life expectancy, that's all.
  6. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=GB
  7. The pound is dropping because of a lack of confidence in the future of the UK due to uncertainty created by the referendum result. Since foreign buyers are presumably using property purely as an investment, the drop in the pound should be matched by an equivalent decrease in demand for residential property, especially given its significance in the economy. The developers mentioned in the story aren't seeing soaring share prices as suggested, they're recovering post-referendum losses thanks to the BoE stimulus package. The rise in profits at Savills is, according to them, based on overseas demand for commercial property. But it doesn't appear to feed through to residential, as per the Foxtons results and data on London prices. The dislocation suggests something doesn't add up. None, even with differing interests in commercial and residential it doesn't make sense.
  8. The problem with this is not relevant to the BoE at all. If anything, it's exactly what they've called for in terms of a fiscal response to match their monetary policy. What's missing is any suggestion of opposition to QE and the related props placed under the entire market, and monetary policy more generally. This notion that the UK can simply build more houses and gently raise the sales volume without disturbing prices is pure fantasy. Corbyn "gets a big round of applause" for completely avoiding the question, suggesting either he doesn't understand the nature of the problem, or he intends to follow the cross-party consensus that's responsible for the current disaster.
  9. +1, well said.
  10. I don't know if it's worse to be there but so clearly not up to the job or, like the vast majority of the Committee, just not to be there at all.
  11. Worth looking again at the idiotic non-response to that claim. If ever proof were needed of incompetence at the highest levels, it's right here: http://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/5727df3b-082b-4b56-9cfe-3edc6f352198?in=16:35:08 "Well... that's true." No, it isn't.
  12. The higher the peak of the bubble, the deeper the valley of the correction. Thanks in advance to these lambs willingly being led to the slaughter.
  13. The way he repeatedly undermined Haldane today suggests he's very aware of one person stupid enough, and spending more time thinking about keeping his poisoned chalice than any "big call" like, say, working towards financial stability.
  14. This is the trade-off. My concern would be that terms of reference set too wide can create insurmountable problems for an inquiry, as seen in that into historical child abuse for example. The hope would be that a more narrowly-focussed inquiry could then be fed into a more overarching view of the situation, but that leads to problems you describe. Given the subject of the hearing was BoE Financial Stability Reports 2016 and the focus of the witnesses of macroeconomic matters, this isn't altogether surprising. The MPs present have a responsibility to translate the responses into something meaningful for the electorate, which they are incapable or unwilling to do. If you're angry about the lack of attention to the consequences of their actions on average people, I'd considering directing that towards the elected representatives who are supposed to be able to bridge the macroeconomy with lived experience. For the most part, I'd say they're incompetent. In certain instances, like Rees-Mogg for example, they appear to just not care.
  15. Bank governor Mark Carney warns on household debt "We are going to remain vigilant around the issue, because we have seen this shift," he told a press conference at the Bank. The Bank's Stability Report showed that the overall ratio of household debt to income was 133% in the second quarter of 2016. The Bank said that was high by historical standards, although it was not as high as in the financial crisis. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38155178 The indicator that led to his vigilance warning now touted as the reason not to worry. Tl;dr of today's hearing: credit is not at crisis levels, banks are able to withstand any shocks, no powers or actions required to contain any issues. Not a single MP is competent enough to challenge these absurd claims. Nobody mentions impact of QE and related measures.