darkmarket

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About darkmarket

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  1. Some incentive for a Macron / Fillon presidency: Draghi Seen Choosing Faster QE Exit If French Hurdle Cleared ...More than 60 percent say the winding down of QE will be announced in September this year, with 93 percent expecting tapering to start by the first quarter of 2018, up from 88 percent in the last survey. A majority say the ECB will announce monthly reductions one at a time instead of setting out a full plan, and the median estimate is for the process to last six months, down from seven months previously. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-23/draghi-seen-opting-for-faster-qe-exit-if-french-hurdle-cleared
  2. We discussed this recently in a regional thread for Belfast, and the results were not surprising. The median full time salary coming out at just above £20k means that with a more reasonable 10% deposit and a multiplier of 4, you can just about afford to live in, as spyguy says, a place where the median male doesn't work. That's true across the country. You can stretch salary estimations, multipliers, ignore average mortgage life-cycle interest rates, and make optimistic forecasts of an individual's likelihood of not facing unemployment at all in the next 25 years, and just about stretch to something uninspiring. It's really not a tough call at this point.
  3. People were spending as long as banks were lending. Nothing to do with the agreement to reduce credit then? The comedy continues...
  4. It looks like a worthy candidate for an anti-money laundering investigation.
  5. I'm sure Italy and Greece share his enthusiasm.
  6. New Global Financial Stability Report: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/03/30/global-financial-stability-report-april-2017#Summary "The April 2017 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that financial stability has continued to improve since last October. Economic activity has gained momentum and longer-term interest rates have risen, helping to boost the earnings of banks and insurance companies. Despite these improvements, however, threats to financial stability are emerging from elevated political and policy uncertainty around the globe. If policy developments in advanced economies make the path for growth and debt less benign than expected, risk premiums and volatility could rise sharply. In addition, a shift toward protectionism in advanced economies could reduce global growth and trade, impede capital flows, and dampen market sentiment... In Europe, domestic banking systems continue to face significant structural challenges. Furthermore, there should be no rollback of the postcrisis reforms that have strengthened oversight of the financial system... Combined with low credit demand, [prolonged low growth / interest rates] would lower bank earnings, particularly for smaller, deposit-funded, and less diversified institutions, and presenting long-lasting challenges for life insurers and defined-benefit pension funds."
  7. I think financial models in retail have become more sophisticated, especially the iPhone being sold on monthly installments through carriers was seen as an innovation without which it wouldn't have been possible to bring to market.
  8. Aside from the question of individual choice, it's when the total lending gets to a scale that represents a systemic threat to economic stability in the event of widespread defaults that it creates a problem. I haven't seen a figure for the UK, but for the US it just passed $1tn. There's no strong argument for a too-big-to-fail situation, but you never know what good ideas people might come up with.
  9. Bt9

    And he can look forward to working until he's 75 paying off an inflated mortgage, since the same people who claim everything's fine with housing aren't complaining about the three quarters of a trillion missing from their pension funds either, that can go on the tab too as long as the wheels keep spinning.
  10. FTSE 100 has wiped out all this year's gains on the back of it.
  11. Bt9

    This is a crude way to measure the potential for a BTL investment, not the value of a house. In what way is it useful to compare prices to a certain year, or a certain point of a previous bubble, unless it's to suggest that the market should move further in the direction of that bubble? Yes, and the figure I provided of under £20,486 pa is from the report you linked. As opposed to making up a figure that would justify a higher price. The most recent data indicates a fall of over 4% YoY in Belfast... ...except you might not have read that because no media published articles on it. Are you actually suggesting we're borrowing now against future earnings from immigrants, and that's what justifies excessively high prices? Try this alternative explanation: banks are trying to shore up their balance sheets by not acknowledging losses made in 2008. People in negative equity are being spared bankruptcy only because it's in the interests of those balance sheets. This plan only works if prices get close to 2007 levels before another recession. Everything that's happened since 2008 has involved more debt to rollover the bad debt already incurred. Prices now are a reflection of all that cheap debt, but nobody has a clue how it'll get paid.
  12. Bt9

    I don't need to frame prices against any reference but reasonable multiples of salary, because I'm not trying to justify excessively high prices. Your example was using figures doctored to meet your aims. I gave you the actual average graduate salary. Anyone can say it takes a salary of x to meet a cost of y. The point is whether that's realistic. Fact, based on the average salary I provided and your figure of 100k. You didn't. You said, "do I think they will go down in the next 2 years - no." They're already going down.
  13. Bt9

    I'm pointing out your measure was the biggest bubble in NI's history and in Europe, and that's a stupid measure to use. Very few think that prices are at those levels anyway, because most people here base their opinions on facts and logic. Average graduate salary was under £19k in 2012, no sign of significant salary increases since then. Again, you can buy for the price you mentioned in the rat-infested streets off the Lisburn Rd. You get your BT9 address, you get rats too. You don't get to live on the Malone side. And that's only a couple of well above average graduates. The graduates working in call centres don't have a chance. They're already going down, over 4% YoY in Belfast, according to the UU index. It's exactly because opinions are subjective that people try to base them on facts and logic. The housing market is completely dislocated from the rest of the economy and the price multiples it requires aren't sustainable.
  14. Bt9

    Why use "the height of the boom" as any kind of reference? This is speculation on how much people are paying down mortgages before moving, or in the case of BTL buyers what degree of leverage they're using. Unless we have some figures to hand, not worth much attention. The median salary for an employee in NI is £393 / wk or £20,436pa. The employment rate is 70%. There is no chance of this social security safety net lasting another generation. The housing market is completely divorced from reality. Yes, a young couple working in traditional professions can still just about afford a two-bedroom in the more rat-infested streets of BT9. That doesn't mean the market is sustainable.
  15. Alphapoint provide matching engines for trading platforms. BitGo provide user accounts based on cryptocoin wallets. Royal Mint bringing the gold obviously. So I suspect BitGo will be working on representing the gold as a digital asset together with Royal Mint. BitGo was responsible for the wallet setup at Bitfinex when they lost around $80m of customer funds, but they've signed a lot of clients since. Alphapoint provided the engine used on Bitfinex, generally holds up well. So, at this point, it looks like Bitfinex with Royal Mint gold instead of bitcoins. Hopefully it'll be better than the current sad attempt at a trading platform by Royal Mint.