Barnsey

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About Barnsey

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  1. Fed tightening $10 billion per month, stock market drops 10%, so they pump some back in. QT increases to $50 billion/month by October, but whether they stay on that path given what we saw with their reaction to the stock market correction remains to be seen. What happens if they don't?
  2. Tempting and quite sensible to think that way Errol given what we've seen, but looking at the leverage, I think unlikely. They'll print as soon as they can, but the next bust will be vicious.
  3. I'll show some appreciation for your j/k Lavalas if no one else will I've just had a read back to the very start of this thread last May, and I admire your consistency @durhamborn, although like everything when the CBs are involved, things take that much longer to unwind than initially expected, however this perversely makes the inevitable even worse. I do wish I was a more patient person.
  4. Oh no not this again! Looks like the dollar may well have hit bottom or close to it, let's see what next week brings.
  5. VERY interesting that we've seen a mini QE4 burst to save the stock market, so much for staying on the QT course no matter what! Think @durhamborn is right about rates not going much higher, but how low will the dollar fall? Will DXY overshoot 86?
  6. How's this for some dollar chart porn (courtesy of Arvind Sachdeva @ 13d.com)
  7. RE: Reading, i'll just leave you with this (hint, I think you're on to something) https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2017/sep/18/what-is-the-average-debt-where-you-live (Sept 17) Only Northampton and Salisbury postcode areas are more indebted in the UK. Could Jamie's Italian closing on the Oracle Riverside be the first of many as people run out of credit? And then there's this GVA prediction for the Thames Valley: http://www.centreforcities.org/reader/brexit-trade-economic-impacts-uk-cities/key-findings/ And so much for the all powerful "get in quick before it opens" Crossrail effect:
  8. USD/JPY back down to 107 (lowest since Sept) Interesting things going on with HNA at the moment, the start of a bigger expose? Keep your eye on the 40% of outstanding VIX options which mature today, probably nothing...US CPI out too.
  9. There are plenty of bubbles all around the country, many of them due to people moving away from the SE, cashing in on their mad gainz in search of a better life. To think these areas are uncoupled and protected from big falls in the SE is dangerous, everything is connected. Why buy in Exeter/Cheshire/Harrogate/Norwich/Edinburgh etc when the SE starts to look like fairer value, especially with the possible negative effects of Brexit on regional business. The SE will always (rightly or wrongly) be the jobs hub of the UK, and in dark times holds stronger than most. The ripple doesn't only travel outwards.
  10. Thanks for the post @Sancho Panza great overall picture of a sensible varied portfolio AFTER we see what happens in the next couple of years. Given me lots to think about.
  11. The prophecy continues... Yesterday Goldman Sachs raised their Gold forecast to $1450 by year end, those are some charts you've got @durhamborn
  12. Interesting, LSL Acadata have London growth at 2.3% for September 2017, so there's your 3 month lag.