Up the spout

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About Up the spout

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  1. Gold strategy in the current economy

    So what's the best way to buy silver paper? I'm not joking, I'd like to look at a silver ETF that's backed by the real metal, or something else where I don't have to take delivery. Yeah, if armageddon comes I can't use the paper to buy tinned food...
  2. Nadeem Walayat Clueless

    I feel the same, he was saying buy shares when there was a lot of negative sentiment rolling around most websites. Now I've stopped reading The Market Oracle regularly and instead read a lot on Seeking Alpha. There are a couple of authors there I follow, one is Roger Nusbaum (because he's a mate, not because he's particularly insightful), Avi Gilbert (entertaining and quite accurate), and Chuck Carnevale (good research), and there are good reads on most days by other authors.
  3. Post Your Favourite Charts Here

    T Just small declines so far, probably because of uncertainty over Brexit, EU nationals going back home, investors wanting an EU pad so looking on the mainland instead, and interest rates going up - possibly the start of more rises in the cycle. So far, so boring. But things could change quickly, next year. There's the bubble in government bonds - some $10.1 trillion in global government bonds with yields below zero - which have kept rates below a 'healthy' level which should deflate as QE is reversed, leading to higher interest rates. Then there's the bubble in US tech, with stretched valuations for a shopping website and a couple of advertising websites. Also there are the bubbles in bitcoin and property. So? There have been these bubbles for years, why will they reverse? The might not, but QE is DEFINITELY reversing, which is the difference between next year and the last ten. Also the UK is DEFINITELY leaving the EU, which is the difference between 2019 and the last 45 years. If the 30-year bull market in bonds also reverses we'll have a nice trifecta in place, which would mean anyone buying a house in the next few years is buying at the worst time in decades. If you're a homeowner you should be saving every penny for tough times ahead, if you rent then sit back, relax, have a beer, as the biggest issue you'll likely face is your LL going bankrupt. So although the present shows prices stagnating or with small falls, once the above are all in place we could witness havoc in the markets. The descent is always more sudden than the increase; a balloon that has been punctured does not deflate in an orderly way.
  4. The Great BIG redundancy thread!

    FTFY. I used my redundancy cheque back in 2006 to retrain in a completely new industry and role, and it has been more beneficial than I ever thought it would be. I just happened into a role which has a major shortfall, because China.
  5. The Death of London

    To be fair what Berlin doesn't have in highbrow culture it makes up for with cheap, plentiful drugs and polyamory.
  6. The Death of London

    I hope it doesn't turn into Zurich (banks) or Hannover (old money), they're the dullest places I've ever been to. I'd prefer it be like Berlin, a capital city but lots of interesting character and cheap housing, or Madrid which just oozes culture from every pore but doesn't suffer hyperinflation in everything.
  7. London House prices are being battered !!!

    I'm not worried, anyway I was making a lame joke... price of fish... battered... I'll get my coat.
  8. Triple lock is still rising more quickly than average wages, and rising inflation will lead to rising interest rates - no problem if you have no debt, some savings, and don't want/need a (re)mortgage any time.
  9. They could if the value of their house dropped to an affordable level. If it didn't then the extra tax bill could be put on hold until they sell, so they only pay the extra after realising the gains. Seems fair to me, of course they won't think that but students don't enjoy leaving uni with 50k of debt either.
  10. The UK establishment is out of its mind, it can't help but push house prices up. Housing inflation is like the sports drink "Brawndo" in Idiocracy, it's seen as the magical bullet to cure all the UK's ills when it's actually doing the opposite.
  11. Boomers have the Triple Lock, all they'll feel is surprise their incomes are growing faster than wages, and superior because they lived through times of high inflation and 'know how to cut back' even though they won't have to.
  12. The Boomer generation will love this longest fall in living standards since records began. No more youngsters spending their money on expensive phones, holidays and avocados. Finally they'll save up for a house!
  13. *edited for clarity* Or making sure you're sober enough, awake enough, or alert enough. You can 'take' your friends to a party or the pub and also get trashed before you set out. You can go on a long drive to visit relatives and sleep on the way, setting off at 2AM, possibly after a skinful. I haven't had a car, apart from hiring one occasionally, since 2006 and it's a big weight off your wallet without all those expenses. When the weather's nice I can go by bike, motorbike, or walk. When it isn't I go by taxi, Uber or public transport (or occasionally a driving mate owes me a favour). Fortunately I live where those types of transport are popular and easy to get, hopefully the countryside catches up, with a driverless taxi in every few villages.
  14. London House prices are being battered !!!

    Bought some smoked salmon the other week as it was on sale! Going to keep it for Christmas as I think it keeps for quite a while.
  15. Property unaffordable for 100,000 households a year in England

    I wouldn't trust Savills to tell the time accurately.