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About Pop321

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    HPC Regular

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  • About Me
    Apocalypse Now.
    HPC: They told me that you had gone totally insane, and that your methods were unsound.
    118: Are my methods unsound?
    HPC: I don't see any method at all

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  1. 2017 predictions

    Poor effort on my part Interesting and accurate.....let me know there bitcoin will be next year. I might get some, do I buy them at the post office😉?
  2. Only way I can have an intelligent conversation is to talk to myself😆😆 I agree with your original post. My daughter bought well in her first house (ie run down 4 bed 1950's semi) and was recently looking to move to something bigger ie more living space. But the step is at least £100k plus costs and it is just not viable. So for around £30k she will extend (lifestyle room, big velux windows etc). And she has realised the £30k isn't spent money rather it gives her something she can use and will add £20k to the house value (ignoring impending collapse). I did exactly the same in 2007. No advocating the 'investment' spin on the program....but Sarah Beeney's double your home for half the money does illustrate numerous examples where moving is just not worth it.
  3. Agree. Also the much higher expenses (house insurance will be double) and Gas, electric, rates and water rates which are paid for by the landlord. I have seen HMOs let for £1200 (3 bedrooms) and the landlord after a year changing back to a family rental for £700 because it's easier and almost a par in terms of 'net yield' wouldn't surprise me if these were netting 3% before mortgage payments. Yep bought at £300k and may look viable to a traditional good old fashioned cash scumlord. The debt ridden BTL'ers have made the least desirable houses 'commercially valuable'...but only to themselves and other debt ridden BTL'ers. These used to sell for 50% of a comparable family home because they were unmortgagable, now they sell for 300% of comparable family homes because they make a profit each month. However it does assume rates are maintained at 0.5%....what could possibly go wrong?....go on, fill your boots.😆😆
  4. Not sure what I have just read😉 Keeps getting fined, vilnerable people, helping the homeless. She is on housing benefit but letting out rooms, awards for charity work. Does she know the £6k is taxable....nah, probably not. So mad as a box of frogs but still a landlady so still entitled.
  5. Great spot and comment😉 So 25 years ago these were bought by miserable tight fisted LLs and like buying any 'business' which needs labour to maintain then 30% returns would be expected. Now daft debt hungry numpties who believe 0.5% interest rates are normal and sustainable are buying 'investments' because mortgage payments are low and yields elsewhere are low. So their has been a demand whereas before the only you could sell to other sharks ....no demand whereas over the past 10 years there was a queue of novice buyers (at a price) £100k each....generous. Hmmm...South Wales, £70k each.
  6. London House prices are being battered !!!

    Take your point. I think because those who bought at the 'right time' could downsize and retired at 55. Those who didn't couldn't. Reality is it may have not impacted some of them as much as they believed nor may they have actually sold....but again it was sentiment about their options and wealth if they own a house now worth £800k rather than £300k (because they bought for the same price in 91 rather than 89) enabling someone to give up work. The 'paper gains' were also fed by large amounts of real earned money being used into each purchase. If your house is £30k and your salary is £10k then your wealth is derived from income and HPI....however nowadays if your income is £30k and the house worth £400k....then the salary is to feed the family and the house is 'the wealth creator'. So the loses were real earnings and savings. Crash 2019😉
  7. London House prices are being battered !!!

    It's like getting cancer if you smoke 40 fags a day...or a divorce if you have an affair. You are comparing monthly cost with capital value and with interest rates at 0.5% that's a very dangerous comparison. In the 90's many could see it was cheaper to buy than rent so they did....even some new landlords appeared and their rationale was not entirely misplaced. Assets looked fair value and monthly costs were cheap(ish). But now monthly costs are artificially low...comparing renting and ownership is like comparing apples and oranges. Asset prices are awful. If your price drops £100k then your cost could be £4000pcm for 2 years! I bring this up because I have seen 15.4% rates and 0.25% and have benefitted from the predictable behaviour generated. I have seen a bubble and remember a collapse and what poor sentiment really looks like....it's almost unimaginable in your posts but it becomes very real. I watched a man but 2 terraces from a sobbing landlady in 1991 for £8k...they were with at least £40k each...and she thanked him. He was a horror of a man who told me when buying to find a desperate seller, pull their eyes out, p1ss in their eye sockets and steal all their money. But I did learn about sentiment and used that as we bought our forever home for £62k in 1991/2 which was worth £140k in 1989. So I am on HPC because I believe it will happen again and I want it to. That purchase set me up for life at just 22 years old (and I retire next year at 50...partly attributable to that crash) No one I knew 'took it on the chin'. Borrowers were immobile and those who owned outright felt desperately unlucky that they has bought a place for twice as much as they need to....it meant they needed to work 10 years to make up the difference. My only doubt about the crash is scale in certain areas...I am not sure if house in the north east currently £15k can fall much....but I do know those shiny HPI towns and cities will fall all the way back to wage averages...BTL'ers in the main are not tight landlords storing cash but funding a lifestyle and they will lead the forced sellers. Crash 2019.
  8. London House prices are being battered !!!

    I am not a clever as Michael Burry and I can't work the data as he did and has done. So my knowledge is from experience since 1986 and these two posts are bang on the money. I bought in 86 and sold in 89/90 but moved to rented (our seller let us down but we honoured our own sale). We then bought in 91/92 and without us knowing/looking the market had crashed around us. In 1991 we were about 22 years old, had made silly money in the 3 years we owned, sold in good faith and could now buy our dream home....a crash for us set us up for life in the home we still live today. When people keep telling me prices can't fall....they lack the intelligence or the experience. A graph is great but living it makes it real. The more people say it could never happen and the government will stop it....the more I know it's just a question of time. Start of 2019 (with London warnings well before) was my prediction....I will stick with that.
  9. We spend a two or three trips to London a year. We like the edgy trendy places which are actually probably quite prime compared to the list you refer to eg we stay at Bayswater, Camden, edges of Nottinghill. But you are so right.....even these better locations are great places to see how people live on top of each other and watch a hive living experience fed by coffee bars and organic food shops but not somewhere I would ever live or bring up the kids. It like going to see Indian, Hong Kong, New York....fascinating but I wouldn't move there. The train back to Yorkshire (albeit posh Yorkshire) reminds me of that every time.
  10. "Stop using the internet in work time and get on with your project. Oh, get a hair cut and wear a tie tomorrow." Thats probably the best you will get from them.😆 But no harm in trying.😉
  11. Yes....we should never wish death on someone. Ps is that fat, greedy, ignorant racist c/n7 dead yet? Whoops....thinking out loud.😉
  12. They were able to declare a partnership because they work over 20 hours s week. They also have other employment. Wow, 8 HMOs require 20 X 2 = 40 hours every week. And these chaps have jobs....I am amazed they have so many hours in the week to do all that work they must be very industrious...it's almost as though it isn't true. Biggest thing for me (other than the HMRC tax dodging element which will catch up with them) is the manipulation of the truth. Over stating 'other expenses' for example the RAF pilot with £70k other expenses and also over stating time required to manage property....even a HMO. The scenario is a nonsense, the leverage is a nonsense, the numbers are a nonsense and the solution is so high risk it's unbelievable. Still....it's nice to see a new storyline on the great 118 soap opera. Shame is never a proper fresh theme....but the characters are good.😉
  13. Agree. Government won't let a HPC happen. They can't afford to because they will lose votes. I have never known anything happen in economics that the government did not control. Well apart from....whoops sorry, started to engage 'actual data' mode....re-engage 'bullish, it will never happen mode'. 😆
  14. Has anyone changed their mind on rate rise this week ?

    Until someone has lived it then they don't believe it. I have been lucky to ride the waves, keep my head above water during the difficult times and come out the other side during the last 30 years. The biggest sign that there is a bubble is that people lose any comprehension what a crash entails or that the best position in the crash is to own nothing and carry liquid assets. Renters become top of the pile Talk of a '5/6 year correction' is nonsense, it happens over a weekend but the stats, the pain and the sellers take time to recognise the position....as do the odd daft buyers. Do it feels like 5/6 years. 15.4% rates were fun....3 rises in a month was interesting. The howls were there, George Soros sat and made money and ERM collapsed. Negative equity became common place in 1991 and no one bought ANYTHING knowing it would be cheaper the following year. Forced sellers probably can get 80% of value today....it is a different situation when they are lucky to get 40%. Seen that, bought at that. Will watch with interest as this bubble continues. London is the first indicator as are those auction prices. Unfortunately under this regime rates will stay low and draw this out longer than it should....but when the fire gets out of control (I guess 2020) those who are burnt the worst will blame 'luck' or the government. As Venger says everyone has a choice and can take their position. My position is this feels like a bubble and the longer it has gone on the bigger it will pop. My son viewed a house last week....totally wrong price (even to comparables) but it was nicely done. Sold in a week....and that someone will moan in a year or so about negative equity....whether prices fall or not. Only transactional business where people seem to believe the salesman. It's great when that changes....and it will again.
  15. The Ripple

    Good post. I give up work next year and am going to use some of my time to review graphs and build scenarios that it should be relatively useful tool to predict what is about to happen. Some areas will be less reliable but I think housing is an excellent example where following falls (or rises) across the UK is fairly reliable. Many say previous performance is no indication to future performance....but for something like this I believe it is. Great work.