nic

15 years is too long. There's a good chance we'll be in a run up to the next peak by then. It might well bottom out in a few years from now already. There is of course the Japanese 15 year deflation scenario in which case you might do well, but this is by no means certain. What's certain though is in 1-3 years time houses will be a great deal cheaper. I'd just buy when the interest cost is less than the rent or some such measure.

I've been job hunting too lately, and had no major trouble getting a new job. I'm in software in the London area, and have to say the market is still pretty decent, although not as good as 2 years ago. The only sector that really seems hit is financial software & consulting. Having said this though I expect it to get worse.. unemployment has not peaked. And it'll get impossible for graduates to get anything, just like after the dotcom crash. If you've got some years experience you'll probably be ok.

GM has been a long time coming.. but it's quite extraordinary how the market is gripped by fear. There are some bargains out there now.

Russia is offering Iceland a €4bn bailout loan. With the banking sector in debt more than 10x GDP, Iceland is clearly desperate. EU (or Scandinavia) has so far not shown any interest in helping which is a bit surprising. Clearly we're all busy with our own crises, after all, why should we use taxpayers money to bail out another country. However, there is something seriously wrong with this picture. Iceland is a NATO country. The Russians are not doing this out of charity or looking to profit from the interest on the loan. The truth is €4bn is small money for the political leverage gained.

I've moved from one rented property to another. There's an unavoidable overlap of which I have to pay double rent, but what about council tax? Both landlords are holding me to the tenancy agreement start and end dates. What's my legal position here? I've currently got overlapping council tax bills from two boroughs.. Thankful for any help

Oh for gods sakes stop spouting this rubbish.. how would you suggest anyone rigs the world markets? The world is not all out to get you. Just think for a second or two.. where does the money come from to rig it? Think about the numbers involved and the openness of the market. Anyone trying to support buy the entire world market to maintain a mispricing would very quickly run out of money. As for the PPT etc.. yes there might exist a group support buying the market on occasions such as 9/11 and the like.. but to maintain a permanent mispricing and "rig" the market is just laughable.

Don't bother trying to reason rationally with these guys.. it's all a massive consipracy to them.

So buy shares in the oil companies then if they're making so much money instead of whining?

I'm not so sure it will feed through to higher IRs, at least not enough to make a real return. Look at the US. Inflation rising and they're slashing rates. Look at oil inflation, food inflation. Things are about to get much more expensive. The political will is inclined to help those with houses and in debt, and it will be at the expense of savers.

I'm willing to take a bet that pumping in money to cushion the credit bubble must eventually benefit selected sectors of the stock market. It was never overvalued like real-estate. Inflation is taking off in a severe way and those holding cash only will be burnt.

Read it on a website somewhere? It's actually funny you take the last 5 years as an example. The FTSE bottomed in early spring 2003 and is about 60% up since. Taken dividends into account that's closer to 100%, i.e. it's doubled. Outperform cash? Cash savings have abysmal returns, and even more so now, with dropping rates and increasing inflation.

P/E is low compared to historic terms because the market is pricing in a bleak future. I tend to agree as well though. Equities are probably pretty fairly priced, and they provide inflation protection. I can very well imagine a scenario with high inflation, small nominal drops in housing but a crash in real terms, and equities gaining. Pumping in money to mitigate the effects of the credit & housing bubbles should have a positive effect on the stock market imo. Holding just cash/bonds is rather risky.

Estate agents are trying to manipulate the Rightmove index by bringing up the average asking price. This is from a residential block near my area. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-166...=1&tr_t=buy http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-165...=1&tr_t=buy Do a search on HA12EX to see the whole list.. these flats are on for about 240k, but the EA has put up 10 spoof ads ranging from 430k to 300k

There exists many industries where companies would make more profits if they could. Tobacco companies are banned from advertising, but no doubt would they advertise if allowed. It would be naive to expect them not to because of morality, or to allow them to advertise but then critisise them. Society needs to do the job of regulating and if that fails it's society's own fault. I agree that the benefits of this financial innovation at the extreme level are dubious, and I believe there is an element of creating opaque products just to get commissions as you say. Basically the finance industry needs to be regulated just like any other industry, and that's where the problem lies imo. The regulating authorities has simply been left behind. They used to analyse risk and make regulatory decisions based on it, but I don't believe they understand the complexity of todays market. They're now just accepting what the bank's own risk analysis departments have to say, which is of course hardly impartial. Not all of the problems can be blamed on this though. At a consumer level, getting into debt, speculating on BTL or overstretching on a mortgage is not difficult to understand. It's way too easy to do any of these and then blame the financial system for not controlling it. It's like the MC Donalds lawsuit. Binge on fastfood, get fat, then blame MCD for it, which is a bit of a joke. So this is where I base my opinion.. I partially blame government for this mess because of failing to control it, as well as the consumer. Banks, sure from a moral point of view they shouldn't create misery for people, but they're only doing what's expected of them, to attempt to maximise profit. I don't think we get very far by critisising them for that as it's not really where the problem lies, as I tried to demonstrate with the tobacco company analogy.

It only becomes slavery or mad levels of risk when asset prices are over-inflated. There is the choice not to buy at the moment. Eventually prices will come to an equilibrium and transaction prices will be fair. The risk & interest on the debt will be fair in the exchange for asset price appreciation, and for the tenant the rent will match the value of the service provided.