Beary McBearface

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About Beary McBearface

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    All cruelty springs from weakness

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  1. London loses 3.2% in the first quarter of year

    Surely if it takes ages it's not a crash, it's a 'secular decline'?
  2. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    The big difference this time might be that the margin calls fall gradually and that some of them may be made by lenders who are confident they can ride any correction and come out of the other side having seen the correction thin out the competition.
  3. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Tolstoy, apparently:
  4. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    At times I feel like I'm just hanging around the forum waiting for Paddles to be proved right Just over ten years now. It was a prescient call at the time and my take would be that a decade of so-called unconventional monetary policy has delayed it not invalidated it.
  5. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Muppet punters in leverage works both ways shocker Everything will be perfectly fine as long as house prices only go up. In other news persistent inflation leads to inflation expectations. After the break - persistent capital gains from real inflation of house prices leads to increasing amounts of speculation and further inflation [Warning: Some of this speculation may involve leverage.]
  6. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Mighty oaks from little acorns grow.
  7. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Not if 3.4% is already the year-on-year figure (which it is). In that case it's 3.4% annualised, obvs.
  8. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    I am a big fan of buy-to-let. When it comes to their pensions, these plucky investors aren't relying on the state for a handout. I am really anxious for them though. A capital loss of 3.4% on a property in a year is no big deal if you're not leveraged However if you're 65% LTV then you lost 9.7% of your capital. If you were 75% LTV you lost 13.6%. It all adds up. Plus, if you're a higher rate tax payer, you'll probably be losing money on the rents vs expenses side of the game by April 2020 because of the section 24 restriction of relief on mortgage interest. I don't understand why people have got such an axe to grind with London's late entrant buy-to-let investors. They're providing a public service out of a sense of duty because they couldn't possibly be in it for the money; clearly the guys entering in the market twenty years ago made out like bandits, but that was the old days. If lots of people get wise to the losses people are taking on buy-to-let you could see some pretty aggressive selling as people sitting on capital gains look to take those gains whilst they are still there for the taking and people taking losses look to cut their losses.
  9. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Stagnant rents (falling in real terms) and weakness in the prices of flats are consistent with the idea that post-crisis speculation has led to both over-supply of flats and irrational exuberance influencing the level of prices and that the boom may now be turning to bust. Fun times ahead for leveraged investors?
  10. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    Looking at the breakdown of the annual fall in London, more bad news for investors who tend to be focused on flats (as per the analysts at the Bank of England, link).
  11. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    From the ONS link in the OP Annualised, -2.1% month on month falls give London house prices down by 22% in a year. If you apply 20% falls to the average London home then you get a nominal fall of about £106,000. A buy-to-let flat financed at 65% LTV will become a flat at 83% LTV and you'd need to find about 6% of the original purchase price (8% of the new value) to restore the 75% LTV so you could refinance onto a teaser rate and not get bumped to the SVR (typically 5%). Not unreasonable to suggest that a London BTL flat cost £300k, and 6% of £300k is £18,000.
  12. HM Land Registry - MOM -0.1%

    There probably isn't any volume drop; certainly you're ill-advised to infer one from those statistics. More likely it's the Land Registry lag.
  13. "Landlords are social parasites" Guardian

    (Emphasis added) Genius academic portfolio landlord confuses jealousy and envy.
  14. Buy To Let Finance Watch

    Update from UK Finance: Source
  15. LSL Acadata - March data

    I could get used to this kind of thing: