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About 24gray24

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  1. Everything's great.

    I don't think house prices can burst slowly. It's not possible. On the day people start thinking prices could actually fall the pool of sellers immediately doubles and buyers half. In a rising market there are a large number of people who would like to sell but are holding on just for the gains. They suddenly enter the market and double supply. Ditto buyers take no risk in a rising market they can always sell for a profit. But the pool of buyers willing to risk a loss is a fraction of them. It's an exponential spiral. By day 3 it's a pool of buyers willing to risk a large loss ie tiny and a pool of sellers including everyone who had been just sitting on it ie all the ones who had sat on the fence. I think once sentiment changes its a mad rush to the exit overnight. So the op who said hpcers were wrong and should give up is misunderstanding me: my fear is being the last fool. I'd be ashamed to end up as that.
  2. Why are house prices starting to fall ?

    Is it possible that prices are not starting to fall and it's just a headline? Chinese are still buying. Parents are replacing btl. Prices look stable to me.
  3. The whole political system has been geared for decades to the interests of the demographic bulge. They're all now sitting in paid off houses worth a million each. Aged 60 -75. Their grandchildren are living in their parents bedroom aged 27 and earning 18k. So clearly a correction is inevitable; how else are the grandchildren going to end up in the houses? But the golden generation would like to sell up first before it all collapses. And keeping them happy is what politics is all about. So another 5 years of insane prices is the politicians main priority. If things change before it will be despite political efforts to prevent it. Some external shock. Left to our own devices, politicians will do all they can to keep house prices up for another 5 years. IMO.
  4. Suppose the number one government priority was preventing a house price reduction. Would that give us the results we see? And what would have to be sacrificed to sustain it? It may be worth considering as the crash is many years overdue.
  5. Krusty needs to be tethered outside a pig ark for a month. That's all most people can afford: £200 for the ark, and £40,000 for the land.
  6. There is no inconsistency. The people he's helping are buy to let landlords and developers. They vote Tory. The people he's getting ready for Chinese wages are the MinWa.
  7. Property Transactions Will Never Recover.

    The advertising campaign is having an effect. It's making people who still live at home feel guilty by deriding them. I know someone now thinking of buying because of the adverts. He has been paying off the mortgage in his parents' rental flat for years. Another person I know has been offered 100k from his parents to buy a house, mainly because he was thinking of moving out from his parents, who had been charging him 500 a month. The parents are getting no interest in the bank after all.
  8. I fear there's too much bias on this thread in favour of a price collapse. So far, the Fed and BoE have prevented any decline in housing or share prices by simply printing more money, and keeping the bubble inflated. The result has been house prices and stock prices have been propped up, while the cost of living has risen to reflect all that extra paper flying around. What is to stop them continuing with this policy? Nothing as far as I can see. If you want to argue for the end of QE, you have to come up with a reason why, and why now. I can think of one bad reason: until the statute of limitations expires on pre 2008 frauds, they have to keep things sweet. However, once they cannot be sent to jail, they can collapse the market and buy back in on cheap prices. QE will not allow them to buy cheap as it keeps the bubble inflated.
  9. It looks like a scheme to allow Gold Gen to sell their houses at inflated prices. With young people paying for the second 15% tranche of the loss. So if a house sells for £600,000 and house prices drop to £300,000, it looks like the seller goes off happy with £600,000, the buyer gets bankrupted, the young have to pay £90,000 in government guaranteed losses through their taxes, and the bank gets a bailout for £180,000, which the young also have to pay through their taxes.
  10. Law Firms Going Bust

    You're arguing for law of the jungle for big cats when you're a guinea pig living in the same jungle. Forget legal aid, it died a decade ago for most firms.
  11. Law Firms Going Bust

    You sound like a man who blames legal problems on someone else. If someone takes your money, you either go to court, or you become a robber baron yourself. Which do you choose? Do you think it's the lawyers fault someone took your money? Or that it's the lawyers fault you don't always win the case? Your definition of wealth creation is also suspect. Does someone who imports stuff made in China generate wealth himself, or is he merely living off others by operating a fat mark up? Do doctors generate wealth, or are they only living off others too? Is someone who saves you £50k generating no wealth in your opinion?
  12. Do I Buy Now

    yes, it is being suicidal to buy a house now, at the top of the market. The above posts have not made it clear: it's out of Osborne's control. He can't control the future of house prices. All he can do is keep the banks alive on a drip feed, until the next bank crisis comes, at which point they go bust anyway. They owe multiples of the UK's GDP, are hopelessly insolvent and if the government tries to pay their debts, it will go bust as well. The future for the UK government is Greece or Zimbabwe or Iceland. Osborne is praying the drip feed keeps them alive until after the next election. The banksters are holding on for the statute of limitations to run out on their pre 2009 frauds. After that, they don't care because they are home free.
  13. Law Firms Going Bust

    If you don't know anything about the finances of law firms, you ain't got nothing but prejudice to go on. It's no good moaning about the fees, when the chances are nigh on certain that you couldn't do the work yourself, but you do want someone else to take the hit if something goes wrong. AFAIK, law firms haven't made much money for years, since the government told them to allow unrestricted numbers of lawyers into the profession. The result has been declining wages and prices, with the average fee earner making about £15 per hour, and the billing rate overstated by 300% because two thirds of the time spent is not billed. Any profits go straight into the pockets of the partners, who bought their premises 30 years ago for £10,000 and are planning to retire before financial armageddon hits the country, with the profit at the end coming entirely from the house price rise, not from the legal work. Basically, 3 Bob cratchets work for survival money so that one partner can have a middle class life. Why do you think the squalid living conditions of lawyers is becoming a standard topic in comedies? Legal aid has nothing to do with it. For years now, legal aid has been cut to peanuts, that's why you can hardly find any firms doing it (apart from criminal firms) A couple of facts: to do a flat purchase takes about 20 hours if you actually read the documents. Look how much they're charging for it. Second fact: Take a look at your nearest solicitors premises and ask yourself the question when was the decor last changed? If it's about 20years ago, that would be about average. They haven't made any money for years, which is why there's going to be a steady stream of law firms going bust, partners had up for stealing client money, and cases where it turns out no one read the documents, because the staff who were paid £10 an hour, didn't have time to read them.
  14. How The Bankers Got Away With It

    Bankers have been committing fraud. Outright fraud. eg selling securities as a good investment, while at the same time putting on bets that they would soon be worthless. When they become worthless, they make a lot of money. That is fraud. Also insider trading. Also stealing clients money. Also forming monopolies. The bankers could all go to jail even now, if the government prosecuted them.
  15. Main Driver Of House Prices

    Initially, when people are taking out a mortgage, the only driver is how much the banks will lend as a mortgage. If banks lent a million to everyone who asked, houses would cost a million. However, once a fixed scheme of mortgage lending is in place, house prices rise or fall depending on interest rates, IMO. So if we look at it historically, the banks doubled the multiples they would lend and that doubled house prices. The interest rates also went down steadily over 10 years, so that doubled house prices again. Now the multiples are going back to historic multiples, so that will slowly half house prices. And interest rates are going to go up to historic norms, so that will half house prices again. Faced with a 75% decline in house prices over the next 20 years, the government is proposing... that the taxpayer should pay for 10% of the losses on new builds. That's my 2 cents' worth.