Confusion of VIs

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  1. I have just seen clips of David Davis speech on Newsnight. He used the term transition period and appeared to accept the EU's demand that it be an extension of our membership, not the implementation period described by May. I wonder how the Express is going to report this huge climb down.
  2. ES What £20bn estimate, during the referendum there was no mention of any bill. Good job too, for the Leave campaign, as only 20% of the electorate were prepared to pay even £10bn to leave.
  3. The fishing policies that the fishermen constantly attacked as over restrictive? Fishing quotas are a good example of areas where there is a real benefit of taking a European approach. I expect that after Brexit we will continue to agree quotas on an European basis, either that or back to beggar thy neighbor overfishing.
  4. Old news. It was revealed some time ago that the EU could not legally give us a preferential deal, even if they wanted to, as their existing deals contain a clause preventing them giving a better deal to any other third country. Our choice is simple we either stay in the single market or become a third country, with at best a Canada type deal and even that could take years to agree or may not be on offer.
  5. A while ago I was speaking to a French colleague about it being likely that most of the jobs leaving London would go outside of Europe, he agreed but said that as far as the French were concerned that's not an issue. Every job they get is a plus.
  6. So you would have preferred we carried on overfishing until there was nothing left to catch?
  7. London House prices are being battered !!!

    How is this news. The EU's existing trade deals have clauses in them that prevent the EU offering any other third country a better deal across a huge range of goods. We have two choices stay in the single market or leave. If we leave Canada style deal is the best we can get; and even that might not be on offer or could take years to agree.
  8. Javid on Sky News right now

    That's £100s and £100s more billions of public debt, not going to happen.
  9. Javid on Sky News right now

    If they cannot, or the government retains any control/direction of their activities, the ONS will refuse to allow the debt to be taken off the UK balance sheet.
  10. Surely the GDP figure must make most people wonder why so much noise and emotion is generated by the fish issue. Fishing as a mass employment industry has gone because of technological change not the EU, this is only going to continue as larger and more automated trawlers and factory ships are being built. The only thing that might help would be for the UK to value and start eating the fish we catch, rather than exporting most all of it to the EU.
  11. I did say in terms of what it is safe to catch, in the good old days almost every country was overfishing to the extent that if they had carried on there would be no fish left. Also a lot of fish used to be loaded here for processing and freezing before being exported, today much of this is done on a factory ship, cutting out the middleman. Grimsby today is almost entirely a fish processing centre for imported fish. Owing to raw fish being a very perishable product, It is very exposed to any delays caused by regulations/customs checks. If these do occur even for a short period following Brexit the importers could be forced to switch to processing on ship or abroad before importation.
  12. Did you note that almost all the rise was associated with entrants from Bulgaria and Romania, with the other EE states now roughly in balance. As I have pointed out many times before when countries are granted FoM there is an initial surge in people moving here (and other richer EU states) this peaks within around 5 years and then goes into decline eventually reaching a rough balance. This is the position I predicted last year that we were just about to reach in regard of the EE8 (to much mirth from the likes of ccc). It's always nice to be proved right. Migration from the EE states always was going to reach this rough balance, probably about the time we leave the EU (assuming a transition period of a couple of years), so in terms of migration Brexit will have been for nothing.
  13. Where does this obsession with fishing (catching) and the fantasy that the "collapse" of the industry is down to the EU come from. The fishing industry hasn't shrunk at all, in terms of its capacity to catch all the fish it is safe to, so what they are really arguing against is the technology that enables one fisherman to be 20 times more productive than they were before we joined the EU. Does anyone really think this will change after we leave the EU. For anyone interested in a bit of perspective the link below is interesting.
  14. I suspect that most of the people involved in the sub prime business knew that it would not end well but decided it was not in their personal interest to call time on it. The big short showed just how hard it was to rock the boat. IIRC a couple of CEOs did and were quickly replaced by the shareholders, prompting another to say something like "you cannot leave the dance floor while the music is still playing". In my own role a large part of my bonus depended on how accurate my forecasts turned out - something I had absolutely no control over. Anyway back on topic. I feel Brexit is going in the same direction, most people I get to speak to who have a deep knowledge of finance or the practicalities of negotiating new trade deals think it is going to be a disaster but feel it is not in their personal interest to start making noise about it. Perhaps the post above is a sign of that this may be changing, it covers concerns I have been hearing discussed for months now but never seemed to be reported.
  15. Some already do but its a message that most people don't want to hear, so think that they have to give their sale to guy with the top price and super confident pitch. They do this even when in their heart they know they have little chance of getting the promised high price, FOMO rules.