durhamborn

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About durhamborn

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    Durham

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  1. Its ironic,but i happen to think its a fantastic area to live.Very low crime.Plenty on the doorstep (i have every supermarket apart from Waitrose within 1 mile).20 minutes to the coast.1 hour 30 to the Lake District,East Coast mainline 20 minutes away.I semi retired at 39 and one of those reasons was of course housing.Paying a house off in four years in my 20s.If people can work from home its a great spot.Like you say though i think Yorkshire will be tanking soon as well.I semi lived in Killamarsh near Sheffield for a while myself in my call of the wild years.
  2. Its a very good question.I think the likely answer is lack of permanent jobs or yonger people staying in education longer.My daughter is now mid 20s and almost all of her friends from school etc have bought now.The south is likely messing with all the figures.
  3. Exactly right crashmonitor.Terraces around me can be had for 1993 prices if you are prepared to spend £10k doing a £25k one up.My house doubled (standard semi) like you say from 2001 to 2004 and would probably go for the same price now as in 2004,so down over a third in real terms since then.In inflation terms,with the few quid iv spend on new windows,new heating etc its probably increased zero in price from 99 when i bought it. Not much BTL around here other than locals who buy the odd one and very little immigration. My postcode is showing down 41% since 2007 inflation adjusted.Id say thats right.
  4. http://www.cityam.com/274005/shares-merlin-entertainment-slump-terrorist-attacks-and-bad Its almost every day a consumer facing stock warns on profits.Always an excuse of course.Terrorists,rain,no big sports event,sun,whatever. The market slice the shares 20% and move on thinking thats it.However its not it.These companies are starting to see the start of a tapped out consumer and how inflation in certain sectors leads to deflation.Merlin above are pulling in capital investment.Last week Marstons said they were slowing down their build out of new pubs etc.Thats just the start.All investment will be stopped as consumer facing companies see margins evaporate and bank covenants come under pressure. This bear market will of destroyed a lot of equity long before the mainstream even pick up we are in a bear market.
  5. The main thing to remember in the PGM metals (especially Palladium) is that Norlisk the biggest producer only produces as a by product and those mines that produce the most are in Russia in the Kola Peninsula,inside the arctic circle.Sibanye are probably the only company in the sector who can increase Palladium production (through their Blitz project at Stillwater) over the next several years,and at very love cost. The Chinese bought 20% of Sibanye and its very likely they pushed for them to buy up PGM assets.Iv owned the shares twice,but iv sold both times when they ran up very quickly.Given they also produce nearly 1.5 million oz of gold an hold very large uranium stocks on their tailings dams they could prove a very good buy in the next cycle.
  6. The street i bought my first house in in 1993 has just had an exact same one sold for the same price i paid then NOT inflation adjusted.Nominal.£25k.They were going for £75k in 2006.Lots of southern BTL buyers have been creamed in my home town.Buying at £70k only to have voids,boilers stole,people not paying the rent etc and then selling at auction for £25k ten years later. Now this is only the old terrace housing.The nicer stuff is probably around 2004 prices,but inflation adjusted well down from peak.
  7. Yes i still think gold has higher to go before any falls.I agree,very toppy on everything else (apart from energy).The likes of Amazon are on PEs of 400.I think TLT depends on if you want a sterling and deflation hedge.I own it myself and expect it to go higher before this bond bull ends,but there is always the risk we move straight to inflation.As ever,treading careful at the moment seems the best trade.If things turn nasty it might be very quick and i have a feeling very illiquid,due to margin and leverage.
  8. Theres always manipulation in the gold price.It usually falls in the fourth quarter,but i hope this year it might be able to move higher.Its actually done very well this year all things considered.The miners havent really responded though to the gold increase.They might need the stock markets to sell off a bit to get going.I still think the dollar index is headed to 88,mainly due to the Yen strengthening and that should see gold over $1450.Lets see how things work out.
  9. Location's will play out in different ways of course.I have no doubt at all 50% falls are coming though.Im already seeing 70% falls here in the north on some houses.People need to reverse the cycle back to 82 when rates started their dis-inflation cycle because thats where we are going.HTB etc are all just props that will be swept away very soon.Markets trade at the margin.Most people are going to be shocked to the core with whats coming and get an education they wont forget,and nor will their grandchildren who the repeat the story to.
  10. I think prices will collapse long before rates start going up.The rate increases will come later and keep prices down after the falls.Very likely we will see 50% falls in the south minimum followed by prices going up at less than inflation as rates slowly rise for a cycle.People need to hold on a little longer.Like all bubbles,after they pop,people wont consider houses an investment for a generation.Hammond will have zero affect on whats coming.Budgets are a side show.
  11. True,but the house price crash is coming anyway and it will be huge.Nothing will stop it.Its just the end of a falling rates cycle.Corbyn would likely create a massive liquidity crisis where young people wont be able to take advantage unless they have a lot of capital.Does anyone really think Corbyn wants a nation of young home owners?.I fully agree houses are going (and need to) back to around 3/4 times earnings,but i just dont think when that happens Corbyn will be a good choice for workers if history is anything to go by.Time will tell.
  12. Exactly.The last thing lower paid young need is less liquidity.They need higher rates to crush prices.They will pay the same of course in repayments due to higher rates,but they will have a much lower debt meaning they can over pay and clear it quicker etc.
  13. Mass welfare spending for one.Staying in the single market (mass immigration).Massive falls in sterling that will see huge increases in tax and inflation.There are huge problems ,mostly around house prices,but i think Corbyn would be a disaster for young people.Apart from the ones who have their assets outside of sterling before he gets in.Of course young people who think he will lead them to the promised land can vote for him and Labour.They could then find out if Marxism works or not.My families well being and assets will be invested on the side that he will be a complete disaster.
  14. Selling council houses is a different thing.Here in the North the prices paid by people buying them havent even kept up with inflation mostly.Change is coming,massive change and there will be a new set of winners and losers.Most people up here in the North can easily buy still though,my daughter bought at 24 years old with a 30% deposit and will be mortgage free at 31ish. As you say a lot of the problems in the south are due to rates,and that is because they are at the end of a long dis-inflation cycle that started in 82.People have pushed prices up there to the extreme of 0.25% rates lasting for 30 years.When rates are back to 5% and more likely 9% in eight years that folly will reverse.Its just an old fashioned bubble. I know several people who bought houses to rent out to immigrant workers.One set all got jobs at a factory that sacked a lot of long term workers on £10.60 an hour and replaced with the immigrants at £7.50 an hour.I agree the young are being shafted,but a lot of the shafting is for left wing policy that they seem to cheer for.
  15. Its ironic but Labour caused a lot of the problems with their welfare/immigration policy.There is no doubt the Conservative's pushing de-industrial was also a huge part of the problem.I know young people who have a free house,£20k a year on top spending money,and never worked a day.I know other young people working hard in poor jobs who cant afford a house.The problems are that benefits (including boomer pensions) are far too high compared to earnings of people who work.Higher wages,lower benefits,or both are needed.Whats coming is going to be on a scale few imagine right now.I think we will see around £600 billion printed minimum and invested direct into industrial projects.Alongside that mass reflation we will see rates rising towards double figures again crushing down on asset prices through the cycle.Houses and bonds will see multi generation falls,and instead money will flow into production as the only means to keep in range of the inflation.The Tories need to hold on and and be the ones in charge when it hits so they can turn the spending taps on.All these things above are part of the fact the consumer is dead.Whatever the press say,or the narrative what happens next is the same as what always has in these situations where even society and democracy is at stake.Massive government intervention into the real economy.They are just waiting for a crisis to hit for the excuse to start.The banks wont be getting the money this time,the brick works will.