RJMitchell

Thanks to the wise on Houseprice crash, you’ve saved us tens of thousands over the past 4 years. Today we’ve just completed on the purchase of our country cottage from our Landlord. I’m estimating that coming to this forum has offered me an education that has saved us to the tune of 50 grand. Rather than just immediately berating me for stepping back in I will outline my circumstances in order that you might take on board my opinions in the same manner that I have learned from others, to my benefit. Our deal was 35% deposit over 10 years fix at 4.99 at 3x single salary. I believe house prices never really went up, it was money that got cheap. At 4.99% that’s damn near free money, if like me, you believe in likely inflation through QE. A 1% shift upwards in interest payments would equal a 20% increase in my monthly payments, interest rates aren’t going any lower and they will only go one way. So, over a ten year period at some point I’m likely to be paying more for our debt if I don’t fix the deal now, hence I’m at the bottom of the housing “mortgage monthly payment cost†cycle. Ok, I accept that house prices will fall over the next year or so, maybe ten percent more, but two years into our ten year fix I think we start to see a return on our gamble. I’m a bit of a TFH type. Its no bloody accident that we’ve bought a little cottage in Rutland, away from the great unwashed,(of which I am one), should social trouble erupt. I can see many tensions developing in the UK, plus many other potential issues such as disrupted food supply, pandemics, terror attacks, fuel crisis, in fact you name it I fear it. But not only do I fear it, I take steps to protect ourselves from it through a stable geographic location that the landlord cant boot me out of. Maybe my biggest point of all is…… and its taken me long enough to realise this. Please forget all this bull about we must return to a 3.5 times multiple. Just forget it. We all have the tendency for looking at graphs and thinking what must happen next through extrapolation, well lets look at a bigger graph, a 2000 year graph. Lets say, to be on the safe side, property ownership began 2000 years ago in the UK with the iron age tribes. And lets say that home ownership has only really taken hold in the UK for the last 40 years. So, by my maths, home ownership by the masses has only really existed for 2% of that time. I fear this minor incursion by the masses into home ownership is nothing more than a blip. The other 98% of the time all the homes are In a very few fat pockets. Over history the masses were never able to afford their own patch of dirt so stop thinking about 3.5 x being some sort of rule. Where the hell was it ever written down 3.5 x a swineherds wage for a semi dilapidated mud hut with open sewer and herb patch? The idea is by those who have money that you pay them rent. Being a TFHatter I also considered that the chances of the banks actually folding up is still pretty reasonable. They can hold my debt but not my assets in that case. The money we will loose in houseprice depreciation over the next year is a good enough insurance premium for us not to get wiped out in a banking collapse. Spotting market mania is an interesting thing, it stuck in my mind that when the last bear turns bull the markets turn. Well, the bad news is the last bull turned bear about 3 months ago because there were no bulls. They’ve started cropping up again now. I’m not fussed about talk of bull trap, when referring to the houseprice crash graph we all know and love there were no previous bull traps. Years ago there were some very sharp and insightful posts on here, not by myself as I am a very infrequent poster, and I am indebted to those chaps. A few are still around, but most of the old timers seem to have wandered off, GEI seems to be a haunt. Most people posting here today seem to have joined post credit crunch. What I’m trying to say delicately here is try to listen to the old boys, because they saw this coming, and bothered to find a place on the net to discuss their ideas. New posters with one line quips and insults who don’t offer constructive arguments are not worth listening to, and I’m afraid that makes up a large number. To summarise, I expect a further ten percent drop in house prices, but a bigger than 10% increase in cost of borrowing. And I’m gambling on inflation getting close to and hopefully overtaking my 4.99% interest rate over ten years. Most of all we have bought a home. Good luck folks.

Just done it, its not showing my name at the moment tho. Will try again in a bit if it doesnt list it.

Fantastic, today's news is like watching Muhammad Ali come off the ropes against Foreman. Now those of us that chose to stay on the ropes can look forward to punching back, as hard as hell.

Laurejon, The work has not dried up because everyone is dry walling now, people have been doing that since the 1930's. The work has dried up because the money is drying up in the economy, but yes I do concede that construction is the last place I would advise anybody to think of joining over the next few years. Plastering has been going as a process for about 4000 years, it didn't die as a trade in early 2006. The UK economy is now on its knees, you can feel it in the air.

I know I'm in for hard times with work being a self employed plasterer on domestic work. Its very evident that business is now not growing at the rate it was 12 months ago, which very much confirms what others have been saying regards domestic work. Its taken a little longer to catch up with me, in that its been within the last six weeks and a lot of the chaps are saying its been dead for 12 months. It would appear that finally the money has started to run out in peoples pockets. I've had a number of people outside construction actually mention the word recession to me over the past few weeks. Give it 6 more months and the absence of spending must start to reflect more markedly in the wider economy. I don't know any sole traders at the moment who are doing particularly well. Mind you, I'm not fussed, I've just bought myself a new violin, and that's a lovely way of spending time, well, it is when you have plenty of savings to see you through it all. This Nero will fiddle while Rome burns, because he can.

OnlyMe, I just see it that I have a body and a brain, IQ ok but not fantastic as is my body. Now you line up a whole load of Chinese or poles and strip us all naked and what do you get, apart from a nasty sight, is a load of pretty much generic production units. Now I'm not talking on ethical grounds or the value of humanity here, I'm talking pure economics. The only reason I'm doing better at the moment is because right now the lucks with me. Out of that line up of Chinese or poles there's a good few of them that fancy running a business properly, but cheaper than me, because they don't fancy a widescreen tele and a Spanish holiday. He gets the work I don't, my living will standards drop and he still runs a good shop. The problem for us with the emerging economies and immigrants is that the buggers have a habit of learning how to improve their business practices. Until my living standard drops I simply cant compete on price in the long term. I'll never have it so good again!

OnlyMe, Don't worry, I wont be complaining. There's plenty enough people in the building trade who just stick two fingers up to it all now, I'm used to it. Tax dodge, no insurance, cash deals you name it. If this other guy has to live here he has to be paying somebody for his space in the sun, if the market drags the price down so we are both living in bedsits then so be it. Really, threes not a lot I can do about it other than build my own good reputation. We cant all be unemployed and pay for each others unemployment, at some point we have to accept that our living standard is eroding as other countries catch up. There's only so many resources to go round. Hopefully we as a nation can strive for efficiency in our work place and build a formidable economic fighting force on the world stage, but we need to start doing that quickly.

Rainbow, I am part of the lazy dross of the British workforce, I work about 50 easyish hours a week. The Chinese work maybe 60 plus hard, and I mean bloody hard hours. The benchmark has shifted, up a gear. I know some people who do work astoundingly hard, the vast majority don't though, not by international standards. Sorry if you feel like the foreigners are taking away your candy at home and abroad, its just what's happening. I hate globalization, but frankly that's the situation we are in so deal with it. One thing that does fascinate me regarding British manufacturing is this. Why didn't the unions look at the Austin allegro design and insist they went on strike. They should have walked out on the premise that they had too much pride as craftsmen to put their name against such a despicable insult to engineering. They should have seen the damage that type of product would do to the long term health of British manufacturing. In the mean time the chaps at Nissan took a different approach. I wish it could have been different. Maybe you should look up who the hell RJ Mitchell was and ask yourself then how proud I am to be British

Leefam83, As a plasterer myself I was discussing with a decorator once the skill levels of decorating. His response, "if you can pi*s you can paint". That's probably true for the bulk of the work, its just the finishing that counts and cutting in the edges. If your mate's up against firms that employ cheap labour for unskilled work then that's just efficient business practice, like it or lump it. Of course I don't want to see the man suffer, and I don't want a whole heap of good polish plasterers turning up either. But come they will. There is nothing inherent about shoving a roller up and down a wall that means you should get more than subsistence wages here or anywhere else in the world. We are global and as soon as the lazy dross that is the British workforce realise this the better. On the world stage as a plasterer I'm probably worth no more than a cuople of dollars a day. I'm just lucky at the moment I'm in the right place to earn multiples of that. My income will drop as the UK continues its slide. What bright and cheery thoughts this time on a Saturday morning. Right, I'm off to work now.

I'm a single chap so my insight is limited regarding women. However, I believe this nesting instinct referred to, its not so applicable. The kids are 10 and 16. If we were in our more natural environment, tees and caves, a ten year old and 16 year old would be considered pretty well developed. The nesting, as far as evolutionary perspectives are concerned has pretty much been and gone. She should now be feeling a bit more nomadic if anything. All this questioning of masculinity too regarding the STR decision. I admire a man or woman who stands up to be counted for what they believe in, regardless of whether they are right or wrong. All the greats in history have managed that. Women like bravado and big balls on a man, I'm surprised she's not swooning at the thought of the STR. Sit her down and talk with her, at length, to find out what's really troubling her. STR it is not. Best of Luck

Nelly, I'm a plasterer too and I must say I'm not struggling at the moment. My bricklaying friend is finding the phone very quiet at the moment though. In general it is getting tight. I feel he's struggling as he worked as a subcontractor for a few firms over the last few years rather than spreading his good name far and wide. I'm based in west Leicestershire.

I don't understand you folks at times. House prices are falling. Calm down, sit back, watch and wait, but why do you get irate? You couldn't stop them going up and you cant stop them coming down nor accelerate the decline. Its just economics and human failings being played out. Six months ago you wouldn't have heard a word about falling house prices on the radio. The tide is turning, its started to flow your way. Relax, your stressing is harming nobody but yourselves. In three years time it'll be 30% off, regardless of a radio program.

You're right. A few months ago the news blog seemed to have a few scary reports in it. Almost as though they were hard won after a lot of searching. Now it seems that its bad news everywhere in every sector of the economy, the contrast is stark. Either the individual(s) in charge of the blog have got more efficient at rooting out bad news or its a true reflection of a change in circumstances. I favour the latter option as more likely.

I just like Spitfires

Not so bad a proposition, at 40 grand the main structure of each first time buyer house it up, assuming you can get two floors. Stick in some glass frontage and it might make a good use of a brownfield site. I guarantee you can turn those arches into dwellings at sensible prices. Plenty of parking space and possibly good views. Oh, and it wont fall down and you wont hear the neighbors. Its different, but people need to think differently about property in this country. The only downside is if Phil Mitchell opens a garage next door.