Realistbear

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About Realistbear

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    I live on HPC!

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    Somerset

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  1. I am looking for a property in Somerset having bailed out of East Sussex in March. I am finding almost 40% of properties on RM marked as "price reduced" and many new builds being offered with stamp duty paid and various "upgrades" added for no extra charge. Some builders are going further and dropping top line prices despite earlier buyers having paid full whack. It is hard to say if we are in crash mode and the shortage of supply would tend to say it can't happen unless supply increases. Maybe the surge in new builds is causing prices to fall? Or is is a crisis of confidence? Perhaps a perfect storm is brewing--crisis of confidence, too many new builds no one will buy without huge discounts, threat of higher IR and a tired HPI bull needing a rest. My gut says prices are down 10% from peak here in the SW.
  2. May declares war on nimbys

    May and the rest of the liberal left establishment have an insatiable thirst for mass immigration and you can't encourage 600,000+ a year to come here without mass building on green belt. If May can make NIMBYISM illegal the builders will have the green light (pun not intended) to concrete over our once green and pleasant land to house the 10's of millions on their way.
  3. Is it slowing? Checking in my area (North Somerset) and pulled up on RM all the new listings in the last 3 days within a 5 mile radius of Cheddar. 21 are "price reduced." Correction brewing perhaps. Triggered by people who do not want to buy "at the top" and maxxed out due to stagnant wages.
  4. UKIP appear to have picked up at least 1% since the U-turn. May is not trusted by conservatives (small "c") and a huge majority would give her carte blanche for a Norwegian half-a** BREXIT settlement. Just what Mutti would like.
  5. Rightmove UK all time high

    Agree but what is the trigger? Inventories at an all time low, credit is cheap, unemployment is low what could possibly go wrong? Black swans galore so perhaps one of those will emerge--but who wants WW3? Not me. IMO, we are in a crisis of confidence position in the market. Values stretched too far and wages are stagnant or in decline in real terms. No one wants to buy "at the top" so are beginning to wait it out and the longer the wait the more sellers join the "price reduced" trend. My gut today is a 10% drop before Crimbo. At least for the SW where I am now.
  6. Crash going mainstream

    Hope so--my timing has been good the last 4 or so moves!
  7. Rightmove UK all time high

    I am looking in North Somerset and note around 120 new properties listed on RM in the last 10 days. Around 25% of which are price reduced. Either the prices were silly or there is a correction/crash on the way. 25% is high for just a case of overpricing.
  8. Crash going mainstream

    I recently sold in East Sussex having purchased in 2011 after renting for about 8 years (house went from £250k after a refurb to £377k in 6 years). Moved to Somerset where I am staying with friends while looking for another joint to buy. Very low inventories locally but a considerable number of "price reduced" which seems to be a contradiction in the way things usually go when supply is short and demand is "apparently" high. Corrections usually occur every 7-10 years and we are now in the 8th or 9th year of the boom if we take 2008-09 as the low point. Is the market going to correct again regardless of low inventories and if so, why? Is it just a matter of "confidence" and uncertainty about the future given the Merkelisation of Europe, BREXIT, the liberal left's obsession with unseating the POTUS and the GE which everyone says is a dead cert for TM who will not cut immigration (the source of a great deal of demand pushed HPI). Where DO we go from here?
  9. Have we ever been here before? Chronic shortage of properties, not many buyers but a growing population due to irresponsible immigration policy and endless benefits for large families. I have recently sold up in East Sussex and am staying with friends in North Somerset. Looking on RM daily and very few properties. Quiet a few price reduced but good ones go in hours due to lack of competition. IR seem stuck for at least another year or so and BREXIT works itself out. Things seem a bit too quiet and stable something must be about to happen.
  10. Retiring To Devon

    3 years since the last post--how is Devon doing? Are more people moving west for value and to escape certain things that are pervading the SE?
  11. I am looking into selling in East Sussex to move to Devon or even Warwickshire (have friends there) and have noted new builds are being offered with stamp duty paid. Not a great deal of inventory to choose from which suggests builders may have slowed down in anticipation of BREXIT which has not resulted in the end of civilisation as we know it. Looks like the EU is suffering badly which may end up sending even more our way to boost demand and keep the ponzi going for awhile. Houses are clearly incredibly overvalued based on earnings but I am not seeing any signs of a crash.
  12. Tax Credit Change "key To Eu Renegotiation"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3096713/Blow-Cameron-Germans-French-plot-boost-EU-power-stealth.html Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande agreed to tighten political union between the Eurozone countries without the need for treaty change The move is a potential blow to PM, who believes treaty change will be needed to enact his key demands Came as PM held talks with EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker at Chequers Its been an age since I have been on Hpc.com but thought I would have a look in as I believe we are about to enjoy a hum-dinger of an HPC starting this Autumn. In the meantime, I am actively engaged in the Referendum debate and have always held the view that it will take Europe to destory the monster in Brussels. The Eu is not Europe and Europe is not the Eu. The Eu is for the sole benefit of Germany and Eastern Europe and the West are waking up to that fact: http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR79_EUROSCEPTICISM_BRIEF_AW.pdf
  13. Gold strategy in the current economy

    Time for the RB to look in and see if anyone is suggesting buying on the dips? Looks like everyone heard Bernanke say he is withdrawing liquidity rather than what he actually said: withdrawing liquidity IF the economy improves. The sell off in bonds will trigger some interesting IR hikes and financial chaos until the dusty settles. Medium to LT stocks may be best. Still no triple digit drops yet although today's $83 drop drew close. (Edit $85 drop) Crimbocasts for next year might be difficult.
  14. Gold strategy in the current economy

    FWIW they say the thrill of losing vast sums is more addictive than winning.
  15. Gold strategy in the current economy

    It can be disconcerting if you paid more for those items that are now in a fire sale. This may be a good time to sell if you bought in at around $1200 as that looks likely soon if momentum keeps up. Hard to gauge where the money is going--Bill Gross seems to be in a panic.