top_dag20001

Fully agree. These greedy so and so's were happy to invest hoping for return, but when it all went wrong, they play pauper and out comes the begging bowls. Yes some were/may have been misold by their brethren, but that's their beef. This money should be paid back (to us the tax payer!) with interest that reflects their credit risk (high). A real glimpse into the rotten core of fanatics at work in this country. Only the naive would think this was simple investment vehicle, it wasn't. It was an exclusive club designed to land grab, develop for return and with added benefit of keeping it out of the hands of them ens. What was all that stuff about rich men, camels and through the eye of a needle?

Up to his eyeballs in dirty money. Just follow the breadcrumbs. Will all end in tears for his savvy "investors".

Two can play at that game Ill give you a clue .... a mate of yours just happens to be interested in the same property as you, but he/she thinks it's on being advertised way over value and puts in a below market value bid. Sets the tone. Let the games commence

Ask yourself these fundamentals: What are your personal circumstances? Stable employment, pension, savings pot in addition to deposit? Factor in nesr term lifestyle changes (e.g. marriage, children, wish to travel) Do your research - market research (charts show you where we are in the valuation cycle) , LPSNI rates value, sold prices of similar properties over last 10 years, yield ect... What do you want - where suits you best, type of house, what can you compromise on. Is it affordable? What are the multiples, can you afford it, can you afford not to make the move (e.g. continuing to pay someone's else's mortgage). This is crucial, as renting provides flexibilites, but only if you really need them, otherwise it's a usery trap. Timing - will it matter much? Would waiting until outcome of Brexit provide better confidence in your decision?

LPSNI (Lanyon Plaza, Belfast - opposite Holton hotel). They can do a search for you. Very helpful and friendly staff. Or you can apply for online account and do at your leisure at home. It's about £5-12 per search depending on what you're after (terrible I know), but it is very useful if you're zeroing in on particular houses and want to get comparatives (e.g. last sold price, next door last sold prices, deed details). It is a bit of a disgrace that this information isnt freely available, as the market would certainly benefit from it (volitility, transparency etc). MLAs need to get their act together to rectify it and it would be very simple to implement. Good luck!

Agreed. Simply delusional. Agents relying on a very low volume of recent transactions for guidance on price. Sellers 'hearing' that such and such house went for £xk and believe their's is better, combined with possible negative equity despiration and a pinch of snobby greed. The market is varied, fragile and complex in BT9. They may get used to patience.

Good to see some healthy debate on the forum on BT9. It's a micromarket of interest to many as it can generally be seen as an early signal on market performance (e.g. canaries in coal mines). Both views are equally valid from the market perspective. 07 was a crazy time (credit fuelled greed & fear being the toxic mix). A good independent measure of house prices in NI could be a combination of NAV (LPSNI rateable valuation c.2005) and rental yield to arrive at some sort of check on value. With little else in the way of market data, it's each to their own in the market. Has anyone got input on how they are valuing or arriving at a sensible offer price? From what has been mentioned, many think the BT9 market is in around 2005 price levels, with some exceptions for condition/added value extentions etc... Of course without granular data this is subjective. Salaries are reflective of our local economy with stubbornly low inflation and reliance on large public sector. There must be useful data on this? https://www.northernireland.gov.uk/news/statistical-press-release-results-2016-northern-ireland-annual-survey-hours-and-earnings What is graduate brain drain these days? (Better or worse than c.10 years ago?) Market view on prices increasing/decreasing/remaining steady - with the lack of data, very hard to tell. We rely so much on what we're "told" in NI and not on good quality data that the market is generally already in a different stage of the cycle before the participants know of the direction of travel. Dislocation from fundamentals has been with us for some time now. Are we living in new era of leverage with accepted volatility with increased inward migration? or should we hang on to the old fundamentals of 3.5 joint and 3x single earnings? Who is the smart money and what are they doing at the moment? Getting in or out of residential property?

Agreed JoeDavola . It is a bit mental considering the underlying fundamentals (pardon the pun) aren't that healthy (Brexit, public sector reliance, stubbornly low wages, disparity of wealth). Whats that area like to live in though? From a glance, there seems to be some wide variation out there. Mix of kite flying and some big lemons coming on to BT9. Speaking to an EA recently they mentioned that the market is about "6 weeks" behind where they thought it would be in terms of volumes coming on. hmmmm. Lemon no 1:https://www.propertypal.com/7-bromfield-windsor-park-belfast/348034 Offers over £495k. Was listed previously at £525k in March 2015 by Simon OBrien. NAV is £575k ! https://lpsni.gov.uk/vlistdcv/propertydetails.asp?di=07&dn=Belfast+City+Council&wi=0000000590&wn=Windsor&si=0000003386&sn=Bromfield&display=810950&rn=7 Some kite flying out there too: https://www.propertypal.com/4-belvedere-manor-windsor-park-belfast/446736 On at £350k with TL (needs quite a lot of work). NAV £280k. Similar in same development but much totally refurbished and nicer sold by TL for c.£330k c.6months ago. Is this the vendors being space cadets or TL trying to steer the market again or other? https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/ECSECS44256/26-Hillside-Park/411495166/ - agreed 2buyornot2buy - someones on acid with this one! All of this, of course, is anecdotal, because we've no access to good information from LPS on historic sold prices to base any sort of independent valuation on. Thoughts?

Ok so latest UU report is showing trending downwards in Q4. Question is, does Q4 every year trend l downward (as lower number of transactions)? is it post Brexit influence? Or other? Also - is the underlying dataset available for this research? (i.e. can we see each transaction and it's location?)

Fantastic read. The follow-up "Superfreakanomics" and "When to rob a bank" good reads too. Hardly anything coming on the market in BT9 at 'good value'. Anyone see this one? - https://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=BCCE786270&SearchID=&page= Just went "sale agreed from £365k" (NAV £320). Seems overpriced given the stats of house next door even factoring in refurb (c.£1.2kpcm rent c.4% yield), and proximity to the newer build houses on Sharman.

This happened a lot in the last boom part of the cycle - can attest to that! Can you name the house? It's symptomatic of inefficient market - unrealistic "kite-flyers" or those who are effectively stuck in their current house due to over paying in the past and cannot absorb any loss. Tough game to play that, as the next offer could be many time less under asking given what might happen with the economy later in the year. Few questions to stimulate debate: What are peoples thoughts on sales prices being achieved in BT9 in say the last year? - there seems to have been plenty of houses advertised at +10 to +40% NAV, but are these actually completing at these levels (seems unlikely given that some have been sitting on the market for quite some long time). Are rent yields a good basis of valuation for BT9? (from quick research they seem to be hitting ridiculously low yields e.g. c2-3%. How flexible/honest are the local EAs? - are they willing to play ball? - i.e. managing expectation of buyers of lower (realistic) offers? Do they let it be know which vendors 'need' to sell and which are wasting their time? Which ones are the best to deal with for discovering value? What's the impressions/consensus for prices in BT9 from readers for the upcoming year? up, steady, down?

Hi, Some great useful info on here but, does anyone have any idea of where people can get the actual recorded sales price history of properties in NI? This type of information is readily available in England for free, but not NI it seems !? Has anyone ever went down to LPS to carry out a property search, and know how much it costs (if at all)? It seems ridiculous that if participants wish the market to be efficient in NI, this information isn't more readily available. Too many VIs keeping it from the people?

Thanks for the input MattW. Just thought I'd ask as you seem to be fairly active on the forum on Norwich market. Starla - seems to be a fair few of houses/flats like this in Norwich. My brief, data limited/non-scientific analysis of Norwich residential market suggests it's a real mixed bag. Attractive 3 bed & garden family homes in decent areas, priced reasonably, look like they are going very quickly (8/10 tracked in last month have sold stc), others are languishing. A quick search on zoopla indicates c30% of houses on the market have had reductions. Surely the EAS must be preparing some vendors for price reductions especially for places on for prolonged periods (kite flyers). Have they forgot that volume not margin is crucial? Also spoke to an independent residential valuations guy recently who mentioned that some buyers are "overpaying" (he has advised them of this and they are accepting it due to lack of "quality housing stock"/choice). Yields at current asking 'prices' look low to be considered. What do you think?

Interesting. Have you looked into the council's self build register as an option?

Long time lurker, seldom poster. Moved to Norwich a few years ago and renting modestly. Looking for value for small starter home (3br & garden) near the city, preferably nicer areas that will hold value and rent easily if/when there is correction/fall/stagnation in the market (have seen this all before having lived through the lunacy of 07/08 and came out unscathed). Housing stock looks complicated. Some nice overpriced houses limited new builds. So where should I look - local auctions any use? What are the key things to look out for locally and what's best to avoid? Update: see quite a few recent drops in asking prices for some places, quite a lot of kite flying and bungalow homes with no onward chain (previous owner croaked it/in home). Whats is shpporting the market here? Is the market on the turn?