Independent: Chancellor is looking down a barrel as growth hopes take a knock A leading economic forecaster has been forced to shave its predictions for UK growth as high oil prices start to hit home. Ernst & Young's Item Club, which uses the Treasury's economic forecasting models, said GDP growth would slow to 2 per cent this year if oil prices remained around their current level of $65 a barrel. That is well below the forecast of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, who is looking for growth of 3 per cent, and also marks a 0.1 per cent reduction in the Item Club's most recent prediction.