Real House Prices

real house price trend graph

House Price Crash Forum

Latest Topics

Independent - Nationwide's Evidence Pointing Towards "a Crash"
Is this the first time the "c" word has been mentioned? QuoteHouse prices are...

Seller Won't Move Out!
Hi We had an offer for a house accepted around 4 months ago and have since been...

Plans For More £5 Notes In Cash Machines
link I fondly remember the days of withdrawing £200 from an ATM and getting 40...

Carry Trade Analysis
Interesting points raised. Especially about the great depression being the end...

Double Dip Definately Cancelled (This Week)
U.S. economic data damp down fears of new recession Lucia "Lucy" Mutik...

Zirp Destroys Pensions
QuoteAgain, I must say...... The same principal has left the nationÂ’s pu...

Paul Fosh Auctions
Here is the links for the catalogue. This auction generally deals in the lowe...

Bernanke Takes Blame - Finally Admits He Was Muddled
Bernanke takes blame for muddled message on Lehman QuoteU.S. Federal Reserve Ch...

Fox News Takes Kitco's Ron Paul Gold Audit Story National
that audit should be easy how long does it take to count to zero link QuoteFo...

Ftse Gold Miners Slip On Talk Of End Of Systemic Risk
QuotePrecious metal mining stocks were in the doldrums as top City analysts fo...

Visit Housepricecrash forum >>

Latest: House Price Crash News

Friday, Sep 3 2010 Add a News Blog Article

Ladder or snake?

Independent: How to get on the property ladder...finally

Many first-time buyers will be in their forties before they get on the property ladder. Thankfully, there are ways to get there sooner. It was once a cliché but now it is a truism – it has never been more difficult for first-time buyers to get on to the housing ladder. The problem for many is not today's low mortgage payments but lenders' demands for deposits of 20%-plus. But there is help available, if you know where to look. Shared-ownership schemes, Homebuy direct, New-build home buy, Rent to home buy, Right to buy, Social home buy, and the rest. [NB. Homebuy Direct looks like a government bung, does anybody know more about it or know anybody who has used it?]

Posted by drewster @ 01:15 AM 1 Comments

Rarely has there been a better example of the crying need for LVT

Guardian: Battersea Power Station: the power of dreams

Battersea Power Station is to be demerged from the loss-making Irish property company that now owns it, and floated on the Aim market. There have been many false starts on the redevelopment of the station over the years. 1987: A consortium announced plans to convert the building into a Disney-style leisure complex. 1990, the proposal was changed to a mixture of offices, shops and a hotel. 2001: A design for a permanent performance home for the Cirque du Soleil was granted planning approval. 2005: A proposed redevelopment as an entertainment and leisure destination containing bars, restaurants, cinemas and retail outlets. 2008: A firm of Irish developers wanted to relaunch the famous site as a power station. 2009: Another year, another redevelopment plan. 2010: Still nothing.

Posted by drewster @ 01:01 AM 0 Comments

Will house prices fall further?

The Daily Telegraph: Will house prices fall further?

Fears of a second house price crash. All we've seen recently is a mild 22.6% correction followed by a 9.6% sucker rally. The real crash that will take us down to well below the long-term average PE, as in the mid-1990s, is still to come. That's how long-term averages are formed. Unless you think it's all different this time.

Posted by monty032 @ 10:24 PM 2 Comments

Propping up house prices isn't useless...

Guardian: Home truths for complacent economists

..it's good for the banks (and of course we need a financial system - read "THIS financial system" - don't we?). US tax credits pulled forward housing demand, which of course is slumping with the ending of the credits. What was achieved by the credits? Well, they enabled sellers to get a higher price, courtesy of the taxpayer. This was good for the banks holding the mortgages that otherwise would have been underwater. But it also meant that buyers paid more than they otherwise would, so they'll lose when they sell. And what about the banks etc. who issued those new mortgages? Not to worry, they're insured by Fannie/Freddie/Taxpayer. Is the government propping up the market primarily for banks or for homeowners? I think it's the former. (Article ends with a bleak outlook for the economy.)

Posted by icarus @ 10:14 PM 0 Comments

Express yesterday said "Family home prices rise £91 per day"

Daily Mail: Fresh fears for property market as average house house price slumped by £2,850 in August

House prices are plunging by more than £90 a day amid fears that Britain is heading into a double-dip housing recession. In August, the value of the typical home has slumped by nearly £2,850 to an average price of £166,507. The figures, from the Nationwide, the country's biggest building society, show average prices dropped 0.9 per cent last month, following a -0.5 per cent fall in July. Many economists suspect this is the start of a serious slump with the most pessimistic predicting prices could fall by 20 per cent over the next couple of years.

Posted by jack c @ 10:11 PM 0 Comments

Not bad if you're going for a liar loan

Yahoo: Phoney beggar earned £23,000 a year plus benefits

With his £4,000-a-year benefits, the fake beggar made a total income of £27,000 - more than the average nurse, teacher or soldier. Last night a spokeswoman for the TaxPayers' Alliance said: "It's a disgrace that he's only received a slap on the wrist for claiming benefits on top of his illegal income. Charlatans like this leave us all worse off." Mr Terry told press outside the court hearing that: "I was never an aggressive beggar like the ones you see clutching on to a bottle of cider. People will tell you I was polite and never gave them any hassle."

Posted by crash n burn @ 05:33 PM 5 Comments

This looks and sounds familiar

BBC: Mortgages fuel Brazilian housing boom

There is music, drinks, food and smart people, but this is not an ordinary party; it is the launch of yet another real estate development in Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city. Construction of the properties that are up for sale has not yet started and buyers will not get into their new homes for another two years, yet the competition for the best spots is fierce. When a customer decides to buy, the estate agent has to rush through all the relevant the documents before a competitor closes the deal. "Last night I didn't have any sleep because we spent all night closing deals," says sales supervisor Thiago Davidian. "My team sold more than 50 units yesterday and more are going as we speak."

Posted by jack c @ 03:37 PM 9 Comments

The axe is falling!

Guardian: Standard LIfe to Axe 600 Jobs

I fear for the UK economy. It seems very much like the phase two I and many others predicted is begining. The government stimulus, creation of public sector jobs, cheaper money than the original cheaper money and gimmick schemes like car scrappage and reduced VAT have been coupled with renewed Conlib cuts to send the economy right into reverse - where it was going before the stimulus came in.

Posted by brickormortis @ 03:26 PM 3 Comments

Useful summary of the main market numbers for last month

Housing Expert: How was July for you?

Another useful summary of the numbers of homes coming onto the market, selling and comparisons with past years. Interesting stuff.

Posted by charles lister @ 02:42 PM 1 Comments

Sensible Sweden

Nytimes: Swedish Move Highlights Uneven Europe Recovery

The Swedish central bank raised its benchmark interest rate Thursday to help head off inflation as the country’s economy surges, highlighting the divergence of growth in Europe. The Swedish Riksbank raised the benchmark rate, known as the repo rate, to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent. It had been raised from a record low of 0.25 percent in July.

Posted by mark @ 12:30 PM 1 Comments

View More News Posts >>

House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jun 10 £210,775 N/A 9.90 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
4.9510/08/2010
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) Jul 10 £220,685 0.10 8.10 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
4.7113/08/2010 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Jul 10 £167,425 0.60 4.90 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
16.1904/08/2010 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Aug 10 N/A 0.10 0.20 Cross N/A N/A 12/08/2010 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey 30/08/10 Aug 10 N/A 0.30 0.00 Cross N/A N/A 30/08/2010
Land Registry Monthly Report Jul 10 £166,798 0.40 6.70 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
10.3527/08/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index 02/09/10 Aug 10 £166,507 0.90 3.90 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
10.5002/09/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Aug 10 £232,241 1.70 4.30 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
4.2316/08/2010 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Jun 10 £338,508 N/A N/A 14.80 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
3.5910/08/2010
Halifax House Price Index Q2 10 £263,284 N/A N/A 10.10 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
17.9421/07/2010 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Jul 10 £343,730 1.60 N/A 12.10 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
3.9827/08/2010 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q2 10 £290,249 N/A 2.50 13.20 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
4.4430/06/2010 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Aug 10 £405,058 4.10 N/A 4.60 Tick£429,597
(Jun 10)
5.7116/08/2010 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Jones Lang LaSalle 01/01/1970James ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBR 01/01/1970N/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESR 01/01/1970N/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd. 01/01/1970N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Housepricecrash.co.ukJonathan DavisPhoto of Jonathan DavisSep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive